Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

FOREX-Euro off 6-month high but supported on brightening outlook in Europe

Published 09/05/2017, 12:25 pm
Updated 09/05/2017, 12:30 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro off 6-month high but supported on brightening outlook in Europe
EUR/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
AUD/USD
-
SOGN
-
HG
-
LCO
-

* Euro supported as solid data points to possible ECB tapering

* Euro near 7-month high vs Swiss franc

* Dollar/yen near highest since mid-March

* Aussie hits 4-month low on weak data, soft commodities

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - The euro pulled back from recent six-month highs on Tuesday, but remained well-supported as fading worries over political populism and signs of improving economic conditions in Europe bolstered investor confidence.

The euro fell to $1.0921 EUR= from $1.1024, its highest level in six months, hit in early Monday trade on relief after centrist Emmanuel Macron's victory in France's presidential election.

"The euro's retreat was driven solely by profit-taking. I think it is going to regain momentum over time," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency analyst at Daiwa Securities.

Reflecting easing concerns over European politics, the common currency gained against the safe-haven Swiss franc, hitting a seven-month high of 1.0918 franc EURCHF= on Monday and last stood at 1.0915.

Against the yen, it stood at 123.72 yen EURJPY= after Monday's one-year high of 124.58.

With the French election out of way, investors are now focusing on when and how the European Central Bank could scale back its quantitative easing given the recent strength in the euro zone economy.

The currency bloc's GDP growth in the first quarter, due next week, is expected to have outpaced anaemic 0.7 percent growth in the United States in the same period. Inflation jumped back to 1.9 percent in April.

ECB board member Yves Mersch said on Monday that the central bank is close to replacing its negative view on whether the euro zone economy will reach growth targets with a neutral one, and should adjust its policy guidance accordingly. chief Mario Draghi is also due to speak at Dutch House of Representatives on Wednesday.

"I think Mersch gave us a big hint yesterday. Draghi has been dovish so far but if he changes his tone, then we could see a change of tide," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale (PA:SOGN).

"In the coming two months or so, I think the euro is likely to have the biggest upside potentials, given Draghi has tried to manage market expectations in dovish direction, unlike the Fed," he added.

Improving risk sentiment supported the dollar against the yen.

The dollar traded at 113.27 yen JPY= , near its highest level since mid-March.

The immediate target for the dollar would be 113.40, the 50 percent retracement of its fall from the December peak of 118.66 to its April low of 108.13.

A break of that level opens the way for a test of 114.64, the 61.8 percent retracement of the same decline and 115.51, its recent peak hit on March 10.

Yet with a Federal Reserve rate hike in June almost fully priced in, some market players say the dollar may struggle to extend its rally further, especially given any stimulus by President Donald Trump is unlikely to be put in place for several months to come as he deals with a divided Congress.

"Aside from employment, we've seen some negative surprises in recent U.S. data while the Fed marches ahead to a June rate hike. I think the gap between the two will eventually bring down the dollar," said Minori Uchida, chief currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Uchida thinks the dollar could peak out at current levels in the near term.

Elsewhere the Australian dollar dropped to as low as $0.7364 AUD=D4 , its weakest level in four months, after local retail sales posted a surprise drop of 0.1 percent in March despite expectations of 0.3 percent rise.

The Aussie is also undermined by recent weakness in various commodity prices.

Although oil prices LCOc1 have rebounded this week after dropping sharply late last week, to their lowest level since November when oil produced announced output cuts, copper CMCU3 hit four-month low on Monday on slides in Chinese imports.

Iron ore prices in China DCIOcv1 are also flirting with four-month lows.

"Resource prices are unstable. Eventually their instability could be a source of a risk-off trend although it is not the case now as the world's economic prospects look fairly good at the moment," said Daiwa's Ishizuki. (Editing by Sam Holmes)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.