(Repeats with no changes in text. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
By Clyde Russell
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 10 (Reuters) - If 2020 has taught us one thing it should be the near-futility of making year-ahead predictions. Nonetheless, crystal ball-gazing is likely to once again be a popular year-end pursuit for analysts.
When I indulged at the end of 2019 in looking at what 2020 would hold for commodity markets, the obvious big issue was the then-trade dispute between China and the United States, and the emerging hope of a deal.
That breakthrough was duly delivered in January. Commodity markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that a major geopolitical headache had been soothed.
But the terms of the deal were so ridiculously framed that it was obvious from the start there was no way China could possibly meet its obligations on the purchase of U.S. energy and agricultural commodities.
That has proven to be the case. But rather than being a main story this year, the effective failure of the deal was pushed entirely out of the limelight by the novel coronavirus pandemic.
While the spread of the disease led to lockdowns and economic devastation across the world, the story for commodities was far more nuanced, reflecting that the pandemic was not your run-of-the-mill global recession.
The story for 2021 is likely to be dominated by the recovery from the coronavirus, especially since it now seems likely that viable vaccines will be widely distributed over the year.
But much as the coronavirus didn't affect all commodities negatively, the recovery will likely lift some, and leave others languishing.
It may also be a case of times a-changin', as Bob Dylan put it - 'the first one now will later be last'.
Perhaps the best example of a commodity that had a stellar coronavirus year is iron ore, with the spot price of the steelmaking ingredient surging to the highest in nearly eight years on Dec. 9.
Benchmark 62% iron ore for delivery to north China MT-IO-QIN62=ARG reached $150.15 a tonne, as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, taking its surge since the lowest price this year - $79.60 in March - to 89%.
Iron ore has benefited from both supply issues in number two exporter Brazil and strong demand from China, which buys more than two-thirds of seaborne cargoes.
The commodity is the most obvious beneficiary of Beijing's massive stimulus spending as it sought to boost the economy in the wake of the coronavirus lockdowns, with construction and infrastructure projects keeping steel demand red-hot.
But for 2021, iron ore may see the froth come out of the rally, as it's likely Brazil's supply woes will be resolved.
For the rally to continue on a demand-led basis, China's stimulus spending would need to continue at more or less the same pace that has been in place in the second half of 2020.
It's unlikely that it will be wound back dramatically, but it's probably a fair assumption that Beijing will seek to take its foot off the stimulus accelerator somewhat.
If this does happen, it may be the case that copper will also lose some steam from its coronavirus-recovery rally.
London copper futures CMCU3 have jumped 67% since their low on March 23 to end at $7,723 a tonne on Dec. 9, near their eight-year high of $7,760.50 on Dec. 4.
Similar to iron ore, copper is effectively a China story in 2020, with imports of the unwrought industrial metal up 38.7% in the first 11 months of the year from the same period in 2019.
While iron ore and copper are the heavyweights of the metal world, China's influence has also been felt in aluminium and nickel, both of which have had positive years on the back of buying from the world's biggest consumer of commodities.
ENERGY COMEBACK?
While metals have benefited from the coronavirus stimulus in China and elsewhere in Asia, and are thus at risk of a pullback as the spending moderates, the story for energy commodities is virtually reversed.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 sank to a 17-year low, and U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate CLc1 even went negative at one point this year as market players scrambled to avoid taking physical delivery as a contract neared its end.
While crude prices were rescued by the output cut agreement reached by the OPEC+ group, they have been trapped in a narrow band around $45 a barrel for the past six months.
If the vaccine rollout does prove successful, it stands to reason that crude may recover - especially if aviation picks up - but this may be a second half of 2021 story.
The one commodity that looks increasingly isolated from the rest of the complex is seaborne coal. It faces headwinds in its two major markets of China and India, as well as rising efforts to end its role as a major source of electricity as the world moves to de-carbonise its energy systems.
The trick for coal will be for producers to match supply to declining demand over the coming years, making it challenging to forecast the likely direction of prices based on market fundamentals.
Coal is also an example of a trend that has been building momentum in recent years, namely the switch to renewable energy and the de-carbonising of the global economy.
The defeat of U.S. President Donald Trump and his replacement with Joe Biden is likely to boost the cause of action to combat climate change. And that means dirty fuels like coal, and to some extent liquefied natural gas, are going to feel more pressure. (Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)