Morgan Stanley cautious on HCA Healthcare stock amid slowing estimate revisions

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 03/09/2024, 06:12 pm
HCA
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On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) initiated coverage on HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE:HCA) stock with an Equalweight rating and set a price target of $427.00.

The firm recognizes HCA's strong position in the hospital sector, noting its scale, industry-leading margins, and robust presence in rapidly growing markets such as Texas and Florida, which collectively account for approximately half of the company's revenue.

The analyst at Morgan Stanley commended HCA for its solid execution on capital allocation and acknowledged the significant outperformance of the stock. However, they also pointed out that after a period of substantial positive estimate revisions, the rate of these revisions is expected to decelerate.

The analyst's EBITDA estimates for HCA are slightly above consensus for the next two quarters, and while they align with the Street on revenue for 2025, they are somewhat higher on EBITDA for the same year.

The $427 price target is based on a 10X EV/EBITDA multiple on the company's 2025 projections. This valuation is at the higher end of HCA's historical range and matches the current valuation, reflecting the company's consistent performance and momentum in its business operations.

Morgan Stanley's outlook suggests that while HCA's strong fundamentals are anticipated to continue into the second half of 2024, there might be more discussions regarding the company's trajectory in 2025. The analyst's position indicates a balanced view on the stock, acknowledging HCA's strengths but also considering the potential for a slowdown in growth relative to the recent past.

In other recent news, HCA Healthcare has made significant strides in the healthcare sector. The company's strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2024 resulted in a 28% increase in adjusted earnings per share to $5.50.

This robust performance led to revised price targets from several firms, including Oppenheimer, Truist Securities, Mizuho Securities, and RBC Capital Markets.

Additionally, HCA Healthcare issued $3 billion in senior notes, with the proceeds intended for general corporate purposes. The company's full-year 2024 guidance has been significantly upgraded, now anticipating robust volume growth between 4-6%, with a revised full-year revenue projection ranging between $69.75 billion and $71.75 billion.

RBC Capital Markets and Truist Securities have adjusted their outlook on HCA Holdings, citing strong demand trends and efficiency improvements through the use of artificial intelligence. These recent developments highlight HCA Healthcare's potential for continued growth and operational efficiency.

InvestingPro Insights

Adding to the insights from Morgan Stanley, InvestingPro data highlights HCA Healthcare Inc's robust financial performance. The company's market capitalization stands at an impressive $102.09 billion, a testament to its scale and industry presence. HCA's P/E ratio is currently at 18.25, reflecting investor confidence in its earnings potential. Moreover, the company has demonstrated a healthy revenue growth of 10.38% over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, underscoring its solid execution on capital allocation mentioned by the analyst.

InvestingPro Tips provide additional context to Morgan Stanley's analysis. Notably, HCA has raised its dividend for three consecutive years, signaling a commitment to returning value to shareholders. The company also boasts a strong return over the last three months, with a price total return of 19.13%, aligning with the stock's significant outperformance highlighted by Morgan Stanley. For investors looking for more in-depth analysis, there are 15 additional InvestingPro Tips available, including insights into earnings revisions and stock volatility, which can be found at InvestingPro.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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