🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

Shanghai steel dips, but strong demand outlook spurs bullish iron ore view

Published 11/08/2016, 02:29 pm
Updated 11/08/2016, 02:30 pm
© Reuters.  Shanghai steel dips, but strong demand outlook spurs bullish iron ore view

* Dalian iron ore also off session lows

* Chances of iron ore falling back to $50/T rapidly declining -ANZ

By Manolo Serapio Jr

MANILA, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Shanghai iron ore and steel futures fell for a second day on Thursday following a strong run-up over the past two months, but expectations of tighter supply and a further demand pickup in top market China kept investors largely upbeat.

The strength in China's steel market has boosted raw material iron ore, with spot prices up more than 41 percent this year, following three years of declines.

Another round of mill closures in China may be imminent as Beijing keeps its vow to fight pollution and overcapacity,

and the chance of a price pull-back to the $50 a tonne a mark in the short term were decreasing, ANZ Bank said in a note.

Any repairs and reconstruction following heavy rain and flooding in north China and along the Yangtze River could also spur steel demand in the medium term, it said.

"This comes at a time when steel inventories and smelting margins are low. Thus, even a fleeting suggestion that the market may tighten results in a spike in steel prices," ANZ said.

Iron ore for delivery to China's Tianjin port .IO62-CNI=SI has gained 27 percent from June to stand at $60.70 a tonne on Wednesday, according to The Steel Index. The spot benchmark touched a three-month high of $61.40 on Monday.

On Thursday, the most-traded rebar, a construction steel product, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SRBcv1 was off 0.1 percent at 2,583 yuan ($389) a tonne by midday, after falling as much as 2 percent. The contract hit 2,639 yuan on Wednesday, its highest since April 26.

The most-active iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange DCIOcv1 was down 1.7 percent at 487 yuan a tonne. It touched a two-year high of 511 yuan on Tuesday.

Since July 2015, ANZ said the correlation between the spot iron ore index and Chinese steel prices has increased from 11 percent to more than 63 percent, as improved profitability among mills boosted their appetite for iron ore.

It forecast China's steel consumption to drop by only 0.5 percent in 2016, against an initial prediction for a decline of 4.9 percent.

($1 = 6.6415 Chinese yuan)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.