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RPT-GRAPHIC-From the Aussie to soybeans and cars: what's at risk in a trade war?

Published 20/06/2018, 04:00 am
© Reuters.  RPT-GRAPHIC-From the Aussie to soybeans and cars: what's at risk in a trade war?
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(Repeats to additional subscribers)

* U.S. promises tariffs, Chinese threatens retaliation

* Financial markets roiled by trade war fears

* Investors head for the safety of U.S. bonds, Japan's yen

LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) - The Aussie dollar takes a thumping, soybean prices swing and German carmaker shares are stuck in reverse.

Financial markets have been roiled by fears of an all-out trade war between the United States and China, prompting investors to dump assets at risk from rising tariffs and seek safety in havens such as Japan's yen and U.S. Treasury bonds.

U.S. President Donald Trump's promised this week to slap tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, drawing swift threats of retaliation from China. L4N1TI00T L4N1TL14J

Below are some of the currencies, stocks and commodities seen most vulnerable to an escalating trade conflict:

CURRENCIES

Countries with open economies reliant on global trade are most at risk when disputes over international commerce hit.

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 ticks those boxes. Australia counts China as its biggest trading partner and its currency is heavily correlated to global growth. Many investors see the currency, known as the Aussie, as a better global trade bellwether than the Canadian dollar, which has been buffeted by negotiations over NAFTA, the North American trade pact.

This week, the Aussie AUD=D3 fell to its lowest level in 13 months, and the positioning of options signal more weakness ahead.

Another candidate is Sweden's crown SEK=D3 , given the Nordic nation's open economy and big exporting industries. The currency has weakened about 2.5 percent in the last three days to a six-week low against the euro EURSEK=D3 .

"Currencies which are heavily exposed to global growth are going to feel the pressure from any escalation in the trade dispute," said James Binny, global head of currency at State Street Global Advisors based in London.

Asian currencies such as the Korean won KRW=KFTC as well as the Singapore SGD=D3 and Hong Kong dollars HKD=D3 have also weakened this week for similar reasons.

EQUITIES

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) Merrill Lynch's European fund manager survey in June found a record drop in allocations to auto stocks, indicating that investors are jittery about the sector due to Trump's threat of imposing U.S. tariffs on German carmakers.

European automakers send around $50 billion worth of cars to the United States each year. BMW is the most exposed with up to one fifth of its global sales heading to the U.S. market.

Retaliatory Chinese tariffs on U.S. cars would also hurt European firms as many export to China from their U.S. plants.

As a result, shares in Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE , BMW BMWG.DE and Daimler DAIGn.DE have fallen sharply, taking Europe's autos index .SXAP to a seven-month low.

The aircraft industry, including Boeing (NYSE:BA) BA.N and Airbus AIR.PA , is another barometer as it relies heavily on an open global supply chain. is the single largest U.S. exporter to China, and its shares, along with those of its European counterpart, have fluctuated as trade tensions have risen.

Steel and aluminium are regular targets in international trade disputes. U.S. tariffs on imported steel have hit shares in European steelmaking exporters such as Thyssenkrupp TKAG.DE , Salzgitter SZGG.DE and Voestalpine VOES.VI .

Europe-based manufacturers that import steel for U.S. factories may also become entangled in the conflict.

There could be some winners, if European manufacturers such as ABB and Siemens SIEGn.DE win market share in China at the expense of U.S. rivals such as Honeywell higher trade barriers are likely to hurt most economies, leaving even the winners with a smaller market to work with.

COMMODITIES

China buys about a third of its soybeans from the United States so Beijing's move to slap 25 percent duties on U.S. soybean imports has made the commodity a key battlefield.

It will raise the cost of soymeal, which is used in China to feed pigs and poultry. China's most active soymeal futures DSMcv1 rose 4.2 percent on Tuesday.

Soybean prices tend to be affected more by weather than economic factors, but tit-for-tat tariffs might shift trade flows. U.S. CBOT soy futures Sv1 have tumbled to multi-year lows as U.S. suppliers may now lose a chunk of China's market to Latin American rivals. prices for copper CMCU3 , a metal widely used in the construction and power industries, have fallen to their lowest since May 31. Copper prices can be expected to tumble further if world growth slides. Escalating trade war hits Europe's autos stocks

https://reut.rs/2JYj0KW Planemakers and trade

https://reut.rs/2LYMHfu Trade war fears dent global growth bellwethers png

https://tmsnrt.rs/2MFsHzN China soybean futures, CBOT futures

https://reut.rs/2MDa3IX Windows to the world

https://reut.rs/2K2NCva

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