By Manolo Serapio Jr
MANILA, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Miners need to cut about 250 million tonnes of iron ore capacity, or 18 percent of current supply, over the next three years to balance the market, Goldman Sachs (N:GS) said as it lowered its price forecasts further.
The steel-making commodity has dropped 46 percent this year, outpacing declines in copper and crude oil, amid a global glut and shrinking steel demand in top market China. It fell to $37 a tonne last week, the lowest since at least 2008.
Goldman slashed its price estimate for 2016 by 13 percent to $38 per tonne, analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai wrote in the report published on Wednesday. Iron ore will average $35 a tonne in 2017 and 2018, down 14 percent from earlier forecasts.
"We expect the pace of mine closures to accelerate in 2016 as producers with negative cash flow struggle to find alternative sources of funding," they said.
They added "a maturing steel market in China is ushering in a long period of hibernation for the iron ore industry," cutting the bank's long-term price forecast to $34.
China's steel demand continued to fall this year after shrinking in 2014 for the first time in more than three decades amid a slowing economy.
Chinese steel producers have shut mills as a result, cutting demand for iron ore and bloating stocks of the raw material to a seven-month high above 90 million tonnes.
Iron ore demand will also drop as it faces competition from scrap steel recycling, especially longer term as more scrap supply accumulates, said Goldman.
"As the Chinese market matures and the steel stock ages, the rising supply of scrap should lift the share of steel recycling to 47 percent by 2040, up from 11 percent currently."