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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: July 25 - 29

Published 24/07/2016, 08:33 pm
© Reuters.  Gold futures lose 0.3% for the week amid Fed rate hike speculation
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Investing.com - Gold prices declined on Friday, ending the week close to a three-week low as renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year boosted the U.S. dollar and as investors looked to buy into rising equity markets rather than purchasing safe-haven assets.

Gold for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange shed $7.60, or 0.57%, to settle at $1,323.40 a troy ounce by close of trade. A day earlier, gold slumped to $1,310.70, a level not seen since June 29.

For the week, gold dipped $4.40, or 0.26%, the second weekly loss in a row.

A recent string of better than expected U.S. data reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 45% chance of a rate hike by December, compared with less than 20% a week ago and up from 9% at the start of this month.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose to a four-month high of 97.59 on Friday. It closed at 97.41, up 0.5% for the day and 1% higher on the week, boosted by the diverging monetary policy outlook between the Fed and other global central banks.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The yellow metal remained supported amid speculation central banks in Europe and Asia will step up monetary stimulus in the next few months to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote.

Gold is up almost 25% for the year to date, boosted by concerns over global growth and expectations of monetary stimulus. Expectations of monetary stimulus tend to benefit gold, as the metal is seen as a safe store of value and inflation hedge.

Prices surged to a more than two-year high of $1,377.50 earlier in July, as concerns surrounding global growth in wake of Britain’s vote to exit the European Union sent investors flooding into safe haven assets.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for September delivery shed 12.6 cents, or 0.64%, on Friday to settle at $19.68 a troy ounce. On the week, silver futures slumped 36.8 cents, or 2.33%, the first weekly loss in eight weeks.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for September delivery dipped 2.3 cents, or 1.02%, on Friday to end at $2.235 a pound. For the week, New York-traded copper prices eased up 0.2 cents, or 0.13%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s highly-anticipated Federal Reserve policy statement for fresh guidance on the pace of interest rate hikes over the next several months.

Elsewhere, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Friday, amid growing expectations for further stimulus.

Traders will also be looking ahead to data on U.S., U.K. and European second quarter gross domestic product for fresh indications on the health of the global economy in wake of Britain's shock vote last month to exit the European Union.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 25

Japan is to release data on the trade balance.

In Europe, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

Tuesday, July 26

The U.S. is to release data on new home sales as well as a private sector report on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, July 27

The U.K. is to release a first read on second quarter gross domestic product.

The U.S. is to publish a report on durable goods orders and pending home sales. Later in the session, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, July 28

The U.S. is to release weekly data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 29

The Bank of Japan is to hold its next monetary policy review. The rate announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The euro area is set to unveil its preliminary inflation estimate for July as well as flash GDP figures for the second quarter.

The U.S. is to round up the week with an initial estimate of second quarter economic growth and revised data on Michigan consumer sentiment.

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