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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: July 11 - 15

Published 10/07/2016, 08:33 pm
Updated 10/07/2016, 09:22 pm
Gold ends lower but books 6th straight weekly advance
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Investing.com - Gold prices declined on Friday, after data showed that the U.S. economy added the most jobs in eight months in June, but losses were limited as tepid wage growth suggested the Federal Reserve will probably not raise interest rates anytime soon.

Gold for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange sank to a session low of $1,336.30 a troy ounce immediately after the jobs data, before trimming losses to settle at $1,358.40 by close of trade, down $3.70, or 0.27%.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 287,000 jobs in June, blowing past expectations for 175,000 and the largest gain since October. May's payroll count was revised down to only an 11,000 increase from the previously reported 38,000.

The report also showed that the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.9% last month from 4.7% in May, compared to expectations for a rise to 4.8%.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.1% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.2% gain. This lack of inflationary pressure implies that the Fed can still wait to move on interest rates.

Markets remained skeptical about the odds of a rate hike this year. The CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool is currently pricing in just a 24% of a rate hike by December. Odds for a June 2017 rate increase stood at around 35%.

According to the minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting released on Wednesday, policymakers decided that interest rate hikes should stay on hold until they have a handle on the consequences of Britain's vote on European Union membership. The minutes added that officials agreed that it was “prudent to wait” for additional data before considering another rate hike.

For the week, gold futures tacked on $14.40, or 1.49%, the sixth straight weekly gain. Prices surged to $1,377.50 on Wednesday, a level not seen since March 2014, as uncertainty surrounding global growth in wake of Britain’s vote to exit the EU sent investors flooding into safe haven assets.

Prices of the yellow metal are up nearly 30% so far this year. Gold has been well-supported in recent weeks amid fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the next couple of months and as expectations mounted that central banks around the world will step up monetary stimulus to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote.

Expectations of monetary stimulus tend to benefit gold, as the metal is seen as a safe store of value and inflation hedge.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for September delivery jumped 26.1 cents, or 1.32%, on Friday to settle at $20.09 a troy ounce. On the week, silver futures advanced 30.3 cents, or 2.63%, the sixth consecutive weekly gain.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for September delivery dipped 0.4 cents, or 0.21%, on Friday to end at $2.119 a pound. For the week, New York-traded copper prices tumbled 11.0 cents, or 4.33%, snapping a three-week win streak.

In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to key economic data out of China, with Friday’s second quarter GDP report in the spotlight.

Thursday’s rate decision and monetary policy meeting minutes from the Bank of England will also be in focus, amid mountings expectations for additional stimulus in wake of the U.K.’s Brexit vote.

In the U.S., investors will eye retail sales and inflation data to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes in 2016.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 11

Finance ministers from the euro zone are to hold a meeting in Brussels.

Kansas Fed chief Esther George is to speak at an event in Missouri.

Tuesday, July 12

In the U.K. BoE Governor Mark Carney and several policymakers are to testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee.

St. Louis Fed head James Bullard is to speak at an event in St. Louis.

Wednesday, July 13

China is to publish data on the trade balance.

The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Thursday, July 14

The BoE is to announce its monetary policy decision and publish the minutes of its policy meeting.

The U.S. is to release data on producer prices and initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 15

China is to release reports on second quarter economic growth and industrial production.

The euro zone is to publish revised inflation data.

BoE Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in Toronto.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a string of data, including reports on consumer inflation, retail sales, manufacturing activity in the New York region, industrial production and consumer sentiment.

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