On Monday, UBS adjusted its financial outlook for Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE), resulting in a revised price target. The investment firm reduced the stock's price target from $123.00 to $119.00 but chose to uphold its Buy rating on the company's shares. Currently trading at $94.87, EXE sits near its 52-week high of $101.27, with analyst targets ranging from $86 to $128.
InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is slightly overvalued at current levels, with 12 additional exclusive insights available to subscribers. This decision follows a comprehensive review of Expand Energy's financial model, particularly focusing on the anticipated adjusted EBITDAX for fiscal years 2025 and 2026.
The lowered adjusted EBITDAX estimates for the specified years have been set at $4,611 million and $5,731 million, respectively, marking a decrease from the previous $4,807 million and $5,805 million projections. The main factors influencing this adjustment include general and administrative (G&A) expenses, gathering, processing & transportation (GP&T), and a revision of price differentials.
Specifically, the GP&T expense forecast for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 has been increased from $0.97 and $0.96 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) to $1.08 per mmbtu. This change is attributed to the fair market value (FMV) liability related to derivatives from legacy SWN operations. However, the increased GP&T expenses have been counterbalanced in the adjusted EBITDAX, neutralizing any impact on the final figures.
For G&A expenses, the new model anticipates an increase to $0.15 per mmbtu for both years, up from the prior estimates of $0.13 and $0.11 per mmbtu. Furthermore, the unhedged Henry Hub (HH) realization differential has been slightly widened from $0.25 and $0.28 per mmbtu to $0.32 and $0.30 per mmbtu. This adjustment reflects the latest insights provided by Expand Energy's marketing team.
Despite these revisions, UBS has kept its production volume estimates steady at 7.0 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfepd) for the fiscal year 2025 and 7.4 Bcfepd for the fiscal year 2026, indicating no change in expected output.
In other recent news, Expand Energy Corporation completed a public offering of $750 million in senior notes, due in 2035. The company also finalized its merger with Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN), a significant move in the energy sector.
Analyst firms including RBC Capital Markets, Citi, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities USA, and Stephens have adjusted their ratings and price targets for Expand Energy, reflecting the company's strategic position and operational planning.
Expand Energy's third-quarter earnings report showed an adjusted cash flow of approximately $337 million, aligning with consensus estimates. The company has provided preliminary guidance for fiscal year 2025, projecting average production around 7.0 billion cubic feet equivalent per day and capital expenditures estimated at $2.7 billion.
Mizuho Securities USA anticipates Expand Energy's free cash flow in 2025 to reach $1.6 billion, a figure significantly higher than previous estimates. The company has also introduced a new cash return framework aiming to balance debt reduction and cash returns to shareholders while preserving the current base dividend yield of around 4.2%.
Following a recent deal, Expand Energy has increased its target for anticipated synergies by about 25% to $500 million. These developments provide valuable insights for investors considering Expand Energy's recent performance and future projections.
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