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Novo Nordisk shares hold rating with $122 target from CFRA

Published 14/12/2024, 05:18 am

NVO
-17.83%

On Friday, CFRA initiated coverage on Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), a global healthcare company specializing in diabetes and obesity treatments, with a Hold rating and a price target of $122.00. The firm's analysis suggests that the price target is based on 31 times their estimated earnings per ADS for the year 2025.

This valuation is notably above the peer average of 13 times earnings, which CFRA justifies by pointing to Novo Nordisk's higher growth prospects and profit margins compared to its competitors. According to InvestingPro data, the stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 35.7x and maintains an impressive gross profit margin of 84.7%. With 14 exclusive ProTips available on InvestingPro, investors can gain deeper insights into NVO's valuation metrics and growth potential.

The coverage highlights the expectation that Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 based treatments for diabetes and obesity will continue to be the primary drivers of the company's growth. CFRA projects a significant increase in the company's earnings per ADS, forecasting a 24% rise to DKK23.00 in 2024 and a further 21% increase to DKK27.90 in 2025.

These growth expectations are supported by the company's guidance, which anticipates continued double-digit growth into the next year. InvestingPro analysis shows the company has already demonstrated strong momentum with a 26.2% revenue growth in the last twelve months, earning an overall Financial Health score of "GREAT."

Despite the anticipation of increased competition in the obesity treatment market, CFRA believes that Novo Nordisk's early presence in this space will provide a competitive advantage. The firm acknowledges the challenges posed by pricing pressures, particularly as the company expands market access to include Medicaid segments that typically offer lower price points. However, CFRA suggests that strong sales volumes could help mitigate the impact on profit margins.

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In addition to competition and pricing challenges, the firm notes that costs associated with capacity expansion may affect Novo Nordisk's margins in the near term. Nevertheless, CFRA maintains that the company's position as a first mover in the obesity treatment market and the expected volume growth could provide a buffer against these pressures.

In other recent news, Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) has announced a significant $3 billion investment to expand its manufacturing facility in Wisconsin, aiming to increase production capacities for its high-demand drugs, including the weight-loss treatment, Zepbound. This move mirrors industry trends as Novo Nordisk also invests heavily in manufacturing to meet demand for its weight-loss drug, Wegovy.

On the analyst front, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on Novo Nordisk, highlighting its potential for long-term growth and a promising pipeline. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) also maintained a Buy rating on Novo Nordisk, setting a price target of DKK1,000.00 based on recent data.

In the Chinese market, Bernstein has highlighted a potential shift in the GLP-1 drugs market for obesity treatment, suggesting domestic pharmaceutical companies could increase their market share. This could impact multinational corporations like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, which have historically dominated the market.

Lastly, BMO Capital Markets has observed a notable uptick in total and new prescriptions for Lilly's diabetes and obesity treatments, Mounjaro and Zepbound, leading up to the holiday season. This suggests that patients are actively seeking treatment with these medications, potentially positioning Lilly favorably as it heads into the final month of the quarter and the year.

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