On Tuesday, Leerink Partners maintained their Underperform rating on Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), currently trading at $44.26, with a steadfast price target of $31.00. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for Moderna range widely from $31 to $212, reflecting significant uncertainty in the market's outlook for the stock, which has declined over 55% year-to-date. The firm expressed increasing skepticism regarding the success of Moderna's Phase 3 CMVictory study on cytomegalovirus (CMV), which is anticipated to have an interim update by the end of 2024.
The analyst from Leerink Partners highlighted concerns based on the timing of enrollment completion for the study and recent management comments at a competitor conference in London. These concerns align with broader market sentiment, as InvestingPro data shows 10 analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward, while the company maintains a strong balance sheet with more cash than debt.
According to the firm, Moderna expects to accumulate the necessary 81 cases to prompt the interim analysis by the end of 2024. However, there is a possibility that an investor update might not be provided this year if the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) advises against unblinding the data, which could happen if there's no statistically significant benefit observed at that point.
Leerink's analysis suggests that due to the temporary nature of immunological benefits from mRNA vaccinations, which typically last about 4-6 months, and with the last patient now more than 9 months past their final dose, case accumulation is likely to be fairly even across both the study and control arms. This even distribution could potentially diminish any observable benefit from the vaccine that might have been more pronounced in the earlier months when antibody levels were higher.
The firm's stance on Moderna's stock reflects a cautious outlook on the CMVictory study's potential to demonstrate a clear benefit. It underscores the inherent challenges in vaccine development, particularly in achieving long-term efficacy. The analyst's commentary suggests that the market should temper expectations for the CMV vaccine study's interim results by the end of 2024. For deeper insights into Moderna's financial health and future prospects, including 13 additional key ProTips and comprehensive analyst coverage, visit InvestingPro for the full research report.
In other recent news, Moderna has been the subject of various developments.
The biotechnology company's third-quarter financial performance in 2024 reported revenues of $1.9 billion and a net income of $13 million. This performance comes amidst Berenberg's concerns about Moderna's ability to achieve its medium-term financial goals, primarily due to challenges within its respiratory vaccine franchise and high expenditure on research and development.
Moderna's mRESVIA vaccine has received approval in Canada, marking a significant milestone for the company. This approval follows its authorization in the United States, Europe, and Qatar, highlighting Moderna's growing global presence in the field of mRNA vaccines.
Analyst firms Berenberg, Piper Sandler, and TD Cowen have provided their perspectives on Moderna's stock. Berenberg initiated coverage on Moderna with a Hold rating, citing potential difficulties for the company in reaching a break-even status. Piper Sandler, while lowering its price target for Moderna to $69, maintained an Overweight rating, indicating potential growth for the company despite near-term market pressures. TD Cowen also revised its price target downward to $55 but kept a Hold rating.
Moderna has revealed plans to release eight new vaccines by 2028, which analysts from Piper Sandler anticipate will boost sales after a projected low in 2025. Additionally, the company intends to purchase its Norwood campus for $400 million and awaits multiple vaccine approvals in the coming years.
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