On Monday, IDP Education (IEL:AU) (OTC: IDPUF) received an updated assessment from Jefferies, shifting from an Underperform to a Hold rating. The firm also adjusted the stock's price target to AUD11.80, down from the previous target of AUD13.00. The revision reflects a mixed outlook for the company, with some positive indicators in the UK market contrasting with challenges in other regions.
The analyst from Jefferies noted that the UK market is beginning to show "green shoots," indicating early signs of recovery, while student placement (SP) volumes in other key markets continue to face pressure. Despite ongoing negative policy impacts, the analyst suggests that IDP Education's share price may find valuation support around the AUD10 per share level.
The updated price target of AUD11.80 represents a downward revision from the earlier target of AUD13.00. This change is based on the latest visa data from Australia, Canada, and the UK up to September/October. The data suggests that all key regions are likely to experience double-digit declines in student visa numbers in the first half of the fiscal year 2025.
The forecast anticipates that these declines will persist into the second half of the fiscal year 2025 in Australia and Canada. However, a normalization trend is expected in the UK market, based on the four months of data from the first half of the fiscal year 2025 and historical seasonality trends dating back to FY10. This potential improvement aligns with IDP Education's own commentary on witnessing early positive developments in the UK sector.
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