ING Economic and Financial Analysis

As markets price the Fed's peak rate almost at 5.0%, US housing data will be watched this week. A housing downturn is likely considered a "necessary evil" now, but the pace of the drop may start to...

It's been helpful to see core US inflation easing off the highs through the summer. However, the past month or so has seen a re-elevation. And today, the market expects US core inflation to get back...

Oil prices came under pressure after OPEC revised down its forecasts for oil demand. Aluminum supply risks are growing after reports that the US is considering imposing a ban on Russian...

The dollar continues to consolidate barely 1% off its highs of the year. Last night's release of the September FOMC continued to reveal a very hawkish Fed operating the risk management strategy that...

More turmoil in the UK bond market has seen the Bank of England step in with another emergency measure, this time to support battered inflation-linked bonds. Today's 30-year linker auction and speech...

Oil prices came under pressure in September, with Brent falling by almost 9% over the month and trading to the lowest levels since January. US dollar strength and central bank tightening have...

We continue to favor a stronger dollar this week, as CPI numbers should show another acceleration in core inflation, Fed communication should remain hawkish and risk sentiment unstable. The...

The dollar downtrend appears to be running out of steam. In our view, a further US dollar recovery is likely from current levels as markets show reluctance to fully jump in on bets of a Fed pivot. We...

OPEC+ meet later today to discuss their output policy for November. It is pretty clear that the group will need to cut at their meeting and expectations about the scale of the supply reduction are...

U.S. Dollar: Position Adjustment Dominates Tuesday saw a tremendous rally in risk assets, where European equities led the pack by gaining over 4%, high yield credit spreads narrowed 30bp+ and...

Markets are smelling blood in the water, but do they have enough evidence to price a policy turnaround? Not yet in our view. The BoE’s reluctance to buy gilts is a sign that it hasn’t...

Events in the UK yesterday marked the first time this stagflationary macro environment risked evolving into a financial crisis. Fortunately, the Bank of England intervened aggressively in the Gilt...

The U.S. dollar continues to power ahead. Over the last 24 hours, the focus has switched from the pound to the Chinese renminbi. Here, there are signs that authorities are acquiescing to a weaker...

US dollar strength and central bank tightening have weighed heavily on the gold market. And with further tightening expected there is room for more downside in the near term. However, the medium-term...

The move higher in the US Dollar has been unrelenting and this continues to weigh heavily on the commodities complex. Macro drivers remain firmly in the driving seat, while supply risks continue to be...

Unlike equity markets, where a fall of more than 20% from a peak is called a bear market, definitions in FX markets are somewhat looser. Suffice it to say that GBP/USD is the worst-performing G10...