ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Here are our four scenarios for the European Central Bank and their related implications for the currency and rates markets. A 75bp ECB hike is our call; it's what markets are expecting too. Attaching...

As the FX market awaits the big ECB and Fed meetings over the next week, the hottest topic right now is what Chinese authorities are doing with the renminbi. Having tried to stabilise it since late...

As widely expected, the US administration yesterday announced a further release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This will be the final tranche from the 180MMbbls announced earlier this...

Many parts of the FX market are starting to see the emergence of trading ranges - although Asian FX now looks like the weak link here. Despite this consolidation, FX traded volatility levels remain...

Looking at all the evidence available so far, it looks like the eurozone fell into a shallow recession in the third quarter. For the European Central Bank, this is unlikely to be enough to prompt an...

The Bank of England’s reaction to the UK’s fiscal U-turn will be key to determining if Gilts can rally further. They are especially nervous about quantitative tightening and the outlook...

A reversal in UK fiscal policies, some stability in equity markets, and a dip in European energy prices point to a further corrective period in FX markets. The dollar could weaken a little further,...

Press reports suggest that the European Central Bank is about to change remuneration of liquidity as soon as October. We review the options on the table and see how they will affect money market...

Energy prices traded lower last week with macro pressures proving too much for markets. However, supply concerns remain, not just in the energy complex, but across the broader commodity spaceEnergy:...

As markets price the Fed's peak rate almost at 5.0%, US housing data will be watched this week. A housing downturn is likely considered a "necessary evil" now, but the pace of the drop may start to...

It's been helpful to see core US inflation easing off the highs through the summer. However, the past month or so has seen a re-elevation. And today, the market expects US core inflation to get back...

Oil prices came under pressure after OPEC revised down its forecasts for oil demand. Aluminum supply risks are growing after reports that the US is considering imposing a ban on Russian...

The dollar continues to consolidate barely 1% off its highs of the year. Last night's release of the September FOMC continued to reveal a very hawkish Fed operating the risk management strategy that...

More turmoil in the UK bond market has seen the Bank of England step in with another emergency measure, this time to support battered inflation-linked bonds. Today's 30-year linker auction and speech...

Oil prices came under pressure in September, with Brent falling by almost 9% over the month and trading to the lowest levels since January. US dollar strength and central bank tightening have...

We continue to favor a stronger dollar this week, as CPI numbers should show another acceleration in core inflation, Fed communication should remain hawkish and risk sentiment unstable. The...