ING Economic and Financial Analysis

50bp With a Hawkish Twist The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise the Fed Funds target rate range by 50bp to 4.25-4.5%, in line with market expectations. The text repeats that officials...

ICE Brent prices settled higher for a third consecutive day yesterday following an upward revision in the oil demand forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, the weekly petroleum...

Markets need to re-think the sustainability of the bond rally seen in the past month. Nominal and real rates are seen up. But not by very much. With no sense as of yet that the Fed is done, we...

The oil market received a boost yesterday from multiple factors. ICE Brent managed to settle more than 3.2% higher on the day. Most risk assets rallied on the back of the US Fed chairman signaling...

USD: Overreaction? The US dollar came off sharply late yesterday on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell which signaled that December would probably be the occasion to shift to a...

The Treasury market is nervous about a repeat of the August hawkish Fed pushback.Market participants await nervously Powell’s speech this evening after the October CPI report sent bond yields...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will remind the market of the central bank's hawkish determination today, supporting the dollar. Meanwhile, softer inflation is trimming expectations in the eurozone. Polish...

We see a case for the bond rally to extend in the near term but we expect the move to run our of steam ahead of the next weeks’ inflation and employment dataDrift lower in yields to continue for...

A stronger US Dollar weighed on most of the commodities complex. The oil market also saw significant volatility after reports that OPEC+ is looking to increase supply at its next meeting. These...

Despite a goal-rich start at the World Cup in Qatar, markets are all about defense right now. New Covid restrictions in China are fuelling a return to the safe-haven dollar while investors wait for...

The dollar is tumbling from multi-decade highs. Calling the FX market in 2023 requires taking a view on the Federal Reserve, the war in Ukraine, China, and the overall investment environment. We...

Most of the commodities complex came under pressure yesterday. Although nickel was one of the exceptions, hitting its daily limit of 15% after reports of a blast at a nickel pig iron plant in...

The dollar is inching lower again this morning and we think the ongoing correction could extend a bit more as optimism on US-China relations appears to be lifting sentiment. That said, a broader and...

Bond market returns for 2022 have been horrific, right along the credit curve. For 2023, returns will be helped by a higher starting running yield and subsequent falls in market rates. Bonds will be a...

Energy - Lower US Oil Supply Growth Oil prices came under further pressure yesterday, with ICE) Brent settling more than 2.6% lower as COVID cases in China rise, while the government recently made...

Whilst supply runs its course this week, and the macro-focused participants await US CPI tomorrow, one development that has caught our attention is the sharp tightening of swap spreads. There...