ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Whilst supply runs its course this week, and the macro-focused participants await US CPI tomorrow, one development that has caught our attention is the sharp tightening of swap spreads. There...

The bulk of the complex came under pressure yesterday after Chinese health officials reaffirmed their zero-Covid policy. Meanwhile, milder than usual weather in Europe is set to continue for at least...

The dollar remains in correction mode and the market is watching the news from China regarding the approach to its Covid-19 policy. Today's market focus will be on the US mid-term elections. We expect...

The oil market managed to settle higher yesterday despite a 75bp hike from the US Fed and comments suggesting that rates will peak at a higher level than previously expected. That said, they also...

The Bank of England faced a choice today between a ‘hawkish’ 50 basis-point rate hike and a ‘dovish’ 75bp – and in the event, it chose the latter path. Unlike the Fed...

The commodities complex came under pressure yesterday due to US Dollar strength. Markets will likely be focused on the FOMC meeting later this week, where the US Fed is expected to hike rates by...

It is a busy week for FX markets, with key policy rate meetings on both sides of the Atlantic and some tier-one data releases. The question to be answered this week: is the Federal Reserve ready to...

It’s not surprising that wheat and corn opened higher this morning after Russia suspended the Black Sea grain deal over the weekend. Meanwhile, markets will be focused on the outcome of the FOMC...

The Bank of England holds the keys to the next gilt rally, if it can convince markets that a more dovish path is the right choice. The USD curve re-steepening on pivot hopes has run out of steam,...

Here are our four scenarios for the European Central Bank and their related implications for the currency and rates markets. A 75bp ECB hike is our call; it's what markets are expecting too. Attaching...

As the FX market awaits the big ECB and Fed meetings over the next week, the hottest topic right now is what Chinese authorities are doing with the renminbi. Having tried to stabilise it since late...

As widely expected, the US administration yesterday announced a further release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This will be the final tranche from the 180MMbbls announced earlier this...

Many parts of the FX market are starting to see the emergence of trading ranges - although Asian FX now looks like the weak link here. Despite this consolidation, FX traded volatility levels remain...

Looking at all the evidence available so far, it looks like the eurozone fell into a shallow recession in the third quarter. For the European Central Bank, this is unlikely to be enough to prompt an...

The Bank of England’s reaction to the UK’s fiscal U-turn will be key to determining if Gilts can rally further. They are especially nervous about quantitative tightening and the outlook...

A reversal in UK fiscal policies, some stability in equity markets, and a dip in European energy prices point to a further corrective period in FX markets. The dollar could weaken a little further,...