Originally published by AxiTrader
Market Summary
Stocks in the US ended a cracking year in which the S&P 500 rose 19.5%, the Nasdaq 28.2%, and the Dow 25.2% with a little fall Friday. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq fell 0.52%, 0.48%, and 0.7% respectively.
So a drift after a solid, very solid, year.
As a result our own market is expected to dip back on the open here in Australia with SPI traders taking 27 points off the fall Friday which saw the ASX 200 close 2017 at 6,065.
In other markets the big story was the continued collapse of the US dollar in last week’s thin holiday trade. The euro is at 1.2005, the pound is at 1.3517 and the Aussie dollar is at 0.7806 as the year end dollar flow and poor sentiment toward the US dollar continued.
That US dollar weakness also helped gold have a big surge to end the year at $1302 for a surge of around $60 an ounce in the last half of December. Copper too remains strong at $2.27. But it’s off last week’s highs above $3.30. Oil was solid as well with WTI ending the year above $60 a barrel with a gain of 1% to $60.42 while Brent is up 0.7% at $66.62.
Also worth noting are seemingly positive developments with regard to North Korea – or at least conciliatory gestures from Pyongyang – and the protests in Iran.
Look at the week ahead there is little doubt it is a big one for markets with US non-farm payrolls on Friday the big release. Before that though we have some wood to chop today including the AiGroup Performance of Manufacturing survey for Australia, Chinese private (Caixin) manufacturing PMI as well as a raft of global manufacturing PMI releases.
Here's What I Picked Up (with a little more detail and a few charts)
International (everything is in this section today again)
- German inflation (preliminary) for December was out Friday and it was stronger than expected at 1.7% year on year after a big 0.6% increase during the month. That was down 0.1% from from November’s 1.8%, but stronger than the 1.5% the market had expected. I’m kicking the New Year off with this as an example that my theme for the year is that inflation is stirring. 1.7% is hardly earth shattering. But check out the trend in German and US inflation. Yes, it has stalled recently. Which way inflation heads in the next few months will help determine where bond rates, and thus valuations metrics for many markets will head.
Source: TradingEconomics.com
- Oh, and while I’m on valuation metrics check out this chart of the yield on US 2-year Treasuries and the S&P 500 Dividend yield. For the first time in a decade 2-year notes are above the dividend yield. Why is that important? It’s important if the stock run starts to stall. And it’s important for cautious investors who are looking for an alternative investment. Chart via Reuters “The year in U.S. markets in five graphs”.
Source: Reuters.com
- Oil markets continue to tighten and prices are still rising in anticipation that OPEC and Russia’s production cuts will tighten prices further. But as we start 2018 it’s worth looking at a long term monthly continuation chart of the price of WTI. It’s clear that prices are approaching a considerably important level at $62.55. A break would open the way to $66.84 – the 50% retracement of the 2014-2016 selloff and above that $76.47. How prices react at this $62.50/60 region is going to be interesting.
- China’s official PMI data was out over the weekend and while manufacturing was a little weaker services was stronger. The NBS reported that in December manufacturing printed 51.6 from 51.8 the previous month while the services PMI printed 55 from 54.8. So on balance this is another sign the Chinese economy is doing well as it heads into 2018.
- I mentioned North Korea in the preamble so it’s worth highlighting the optimistic point I was making. Yes Kim jong-Un said the nuclear button was on his desk. But he also said that he was open to talks with the South and may even send a team to the upcoming Winter Olympics in South Korea. Sounds conciliatory. And why wouldn’t it with Chinese trade data showing it is cutting the DPRK off while the South seized another vessel over the weekend that was accused of ferrying oil to the North. Sanctions might be biting.
- Forex markets look set to continue to sell the US dollar as we start the week. Perhaps that will change come non-farm payrolls on Friday. But for the moment it seems the dollar is still on the back foot. The euro’s high Friday was around 1.2025 while the high for 2017 was 1.2092. That’s the target and resistance I guess. A break would be very interesting.
- That relationship I’ve shown between US and German inflation helps explain why – with synchronised growth – traders are making the bet that the ECB will simply follow the Fed in the year ahead and end QE and then move toward rate hikes. ECB governing council member Benoit Coeure intimated the QE program will end Friday which certainly helps reinforce that thought process. As I say non-farms along with US growth and tax cuts might change that in the week and months ahead. But if 1.2090 gives way a run toward 1.2750/1.2820 opens up.
- Local stocks have again struggled to break out of the most recent range. Certainly, the close at 6,065 was very positive given where the market was at the start of Q4. But this range is an interesting one. 6,100 looks a hard nut to crack at the moment.
Have a great day's trading.