Originally published by Chamber of Merchants
There are two likely outcomes and two very low probability outcomes for the 2016 U.S. Elections.
1.Hillary Clinton Becomes the President of the United States
Does that Mean Bill becomes the ” First Man” or “First Gentleman” ?
[These are the questions we need answers to people!]
Jokes aside, a likely outcome if the polls can be trusted is that Hillary Clinton takes helm of the world’s largest economy and continues the policies of the Obama administration, albeit with promised improvements.
Expect Gold to pull back to the $1250-$1260’s as the rapid exit out of safe havens gives way to a refunding of the stock market.
2. Donald J Trump Becomes the President of the United States
The populist movement leader could very well be the 45th elected @POTUS (President of the United States)
The Dollar aggressively declines and Gold surges while the market tries to reshuffle its funds. Emerging markets and Asian markets will be the worst affected as investors exit their funds from economies that would be disadvantaged by a Trump presidency.
Less Likely Outcomes
1.Hillary Clinton & Democrats win the Presidential seat so narrowly that somehow, somewhere a recount is prompted. A recount may lead to days of turmoil and chaos for the markets. Trump has previously stated that he is unlikely to simply accept an unfavourable outcome, stating “we’ll see at the time”. In this event, Trump could actually win a physical recounted voted depending on the state and circumstance.
Expect Gold to tumble on the Hillary win, but skyrocket as the market realises a round two is in play. In fact a Trump win on a recount will really cause a market flash-crash kind of scenario and a sustained appreciation in the Gold price. Not a permanent dip, but certainly a rush for the door.
2. A Hillary win, then a recount, then a Hillary win again.
Same as above, although a confirmed Hillary win for the second time will certainly be rewarded by a risk-off market …until we start thinking about the Fed again.
Conclusion
Volatile. I know. You know my positions.
I’m all in in precious metals.
I simply wanted to share that there may be continued drama even after the elections depending on the circumstance.