Originally published by AxiTrader
Stocks have sharply reversed Friday’s losses, while the dollar is slightly weaker across the board and commodities have recovered their previous lost ground.
S&P: 2157
24hr Bias: Neutral
Medium Term Bias: Prefer to sell rallies
The S&P 500 has bounced strongly from the 2106 low, finishing the day towards session highs to complete a roller-coaster Friday/Monday session. The short term momentum indicators now point to further upside pressure although the dailies look less certain. A cautious stance is required although I prefer to sell into rallies. There is little US data until Thursday and then traders will tend to hold back until the Sept 21 meeting, so it should be choppy without too much direction over the next 24 hours. Note that the weekly momentum indicators appear to be pointing lower, and the price action over the last two sessions is typical of the beginning of a decent move lower, with some wild swings involved. The longer term preference is to be short, although if the Fed sits on its hands next week, that theory could come to a rapid end.
DJI: 18315
24hr Bias: Neutral
Medium Term Bias: Cautiously bearish
Ditto S+P. The DJI has bounced strongly from the 17896 lows to finish towards the session highs. A cautious stance is required.
ASX SPI: 5280
24hr Bias: Prefer to sell rallies
Medium Term Bias: Neutral – Longer term; Mildly bearish
The SPI has bounced from a 5195 low to finish the day near the highs of 5288. As elsewhere, extreme caution is warranted but the 4 hour momentum indicators do suggest a test of 5300 could now be on the cards. Further out though the dailies/weeklies still point lower so trading from a structurally short position is preferred and selling into near term rallies remains the theme. Some choppy trade around the 200 week moving average (5265 would not surprise over the next few days).
Gold: 1327
24hr Bias: Mildly Bearish
Medium Term Bias: Neutral
Gold has recovered from session lows of 1321 but is doing little of interest and there are better things to look at. Going with a break of either the descending trend resistance (1353) or the rising trend support (1315) seems to be the best laid plan.
Silver: 19.10
24hr Bias: Prefer to sell rallies
Medium Term: Neutral
Silver has bounced off the 5 month rising trend support after hitting a low of 18.70 and currently sits back above 19.00. A choppy session near current levels would not surprise although selling into strength is mildly preferred, with a SL placed at around 19.80 is preferred.
WTI Oil: 46.00
24hr Bias: Neutral
Medium Term Bias: Neutral
Crude Oil has rallied today, after an early fall to 44.70, on the back of Brainard’s dovish outlook and assisted by the softer dollar. Technically, as with many other assets, the daily charts are neutral as traders await the outcome of the Sept 21 Fed interest rate decision, while the 4 hour charts are also giving little directional bias today. Right now it is all very choppy so a cautious stance is required and I suspect it is best to stand aside and to let the market do the work.