WTI Futures rose by another 1.7% today as investors continued to weigh the possibility that discussions between leading OPEC producers could help stabilize global Crude Oil prices. Further medium term gains look possible.
US stocks ended a little lower after the hawkish Fed comments.
Gold and Silver were volatile, also on the back of the Fed comments, but ended the day unchanged.
S&P: 2176
24hr Bias: Neutral
Medium Term Bias: Mildly Bearish
US Stocks took a breather today, easing back after the hawkish Fed comments from Bullard/Lockhart and the S+P will take its next direction from the FOMC Minutes, due later in the coming session. The dailies look slightly negative and any hint of an impending rate hike could see further losses, although on the other side of the coin, a dovish tone will see a resumption of the slow crawl to higher levels. I suspect a deeper correction is coming and prefer to sell into rallies.
DJI: 18525
24hr Bias: Neutral
Medium Term Bias: Prefer to sell a downside break of support
Ditto S+P. I prefer to sell a break below the 12 August low, at 18485, looking for a run towards 18350, possibly 18200. If wrong, the slow crawl higher looks set to continue
ASX SPI: 5482
24hr Bias: Neutral
Medium Term Bias: Mildly Bearish
While the short term momentum indicators are flat the dailies still look slightly negative, although while global stocks remain firm the S&P/ASX 200 is not going to go down too far. A cautious stance is required although I still prefer to lean towards selling into strength.
Gold: 1346
24hr Bias: Neutral
Medium Term Bias: Mildly Bearish
Gold appears set to remain choppy as it did today, spiking up to 1358 before reversing equally quickly to 1340, with both moves coming care of conflicting comments from various Fed board members, before finishing up pretty much unchanged on the day. Today’s direction will depend on the outcome of the FOMC Minutes and the direction of the dollar but given the mixed outlook from the momentum indicators, further choppy trade looks likely.
Silver: 19.80
24hr Bias: Prefer to sell rallies
Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
The daily momentum indicators still point lower for Silver so I still prefer to trade from the short side, looking to sell at 20.00+, while hoping for a run towards 19.00. Currently at 19.80 after reaching 20.10 on Tuesday, stops on any short positions put on in the Monday 15 August should be placed at around 20.25 or at break even for more conservative traders. The FOMC Minutes will provide the direction so wait for the outcome and go with the flow.
WTI Oil: 46.15
24hr Bias: Prefer to buy dips
Medium Term Bias: Mildly Bullish
WTI again headed strongly higher today on the back of speculation that OPEC may finally be able to reach some sort of agreement to stabilize prices. As before, the medium term outlook points to further gains although the 1 hour charts are building some bearish divergence and with the 4 hour indicators now being very overbought, I suspect a correction is not too far away. If so, look for levels to buy dips, hoping for an eventual continuation of the uptrend.
Jim Langlands
FX Charts
www.fxchartsdaily.com
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