Originally published by AxiTrader
Would Donald trump have been US president now if he'd faced off against Bernie Sanders rather than Hillary Clinton? It's a question we'll never know the answer to. But in many ways it's the election fight that would seem to have fit the mood of the US - and increasingly global - electorates as far-right and far-left candidates both seem to capture the angst that developed world populations are feeling toward globalisation and the elites.
So it is no real surprise that after a rousing performance at the last big French presidential debate last week the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has joined the pack of what is now four candidates as front runners in France's first round of the presidential election.
Certainly Melenchon is at the back of this leading pack - the latest Ifop-Fiducial poll has him at 18.5% support behind Francois Fillon on 19%, Emmanuel Macron at 23%, and the far-right's Marine le Pen at 24%.
But he has the upward momentum, as this latest chart of the polls from the FT shows.
That surge has got the attention of investors with the spread between French and german bonds blowing out once again. Not to the levels when Francois Fillon first imploded, and before the emergence of Emmanuel Macron as a centrist front runner, but certainly wide by the standards of the past few years.
Perhaps some of that widening is because of heightened geopolitical tensions at the moment also putting a bid into German bond markets.
But Reuters reported this morning that it is estimated one-in-three voters are still unsure who they will vote for in April 23's first round election.
That opens up the possibility that the left and right candidates, Melenchon and Le Pen, both of whom are leery of the EU, want to hold a referendum on it, and renegotiate France's role within the EU, could actually prevail in the first round.
Last night Pierre Gattaz, President of the French business lobby group MEDEF warned over a possible far left far right showdown in the second round, saying both Melenchon and Le Pen's policies were "an absolute catastrophe" for France.
It would also be a pretty big catastrophe for markets as it could prove the seismic event that threatens to shatter the Euro and roil markets across the globe.
Have a great day's trading.