The US Dollar Is Trying To Build A Base, But It's Not Universal

Originally published by AxiTrader

Welcome to the Forex Today column.

In it, I'll be trying to add a bit more colour and a lot more charts than I do in my broader overnight Market Wrap I do first thing every morning to set myself and my trading up for each day and each week.

RECAP

The US dollar is much stronger this morning against the yen and the Swiss franc, has gained ground against the Canadian dollar, and yuan, lost ground against the kiwi and the pound, and has the Aussie dollar under a little pressure.

So the best you can say about the last 24 hour's action is that currency markets are mixed and the US dollar is trying to build a base. But it's not universal.

That said, while I was waiting for my 7am Sky Business cross this morning I heard one of the US commentators note that they thought there was a potential change in sentiment about tax and what the administration might be actually able to achieve.

So I'm thinking my dual hypotheses that the Chinese may have rung the bell on the dollars weakness and that the new compact in Washington between President Trump, moderate Republicans and Democrats may turn sentiment might, I stress might, be gaining some currency (pun intended).

Time will tell.

HERE'S A DEEPER DIVE - IN A LITTLE MORE DETAIL AND WITH A FEW CHARTS

So as I noted above it’s been a mixed day for the US dollar and currency markets more broadly. The US dollar is up in index terms at 91.89. But it really needs to climb back above 92.89/93.00 to confirm that a low in these terms is in place.

It's doing better against the yen and the Swissie with gains of 0.75% and 0.5%. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are currently trading at 110.20 and 9603 respectively. Clearly, that’s part of the unwinding of global risk aversion as stocks rise. The question is how far it can run.

For USD/JPY we are now nearing the overhead resistance that I highlighted yesterday at 110.50/111. Only a break of the higher level would signal a sustainable turn and possible run toward the top of the overall range.

PPI data in the US tonight, and CPI data tomorrow night is going to be critical for the dollar.

Chart

Short term a break of 0.9620/25 for USD/CHF might suggest a run higher. But 0.9670 looks to be the level the dollar needs to break.

Chart

The euro hasn't done much over the past 24 hours really. It's had competing comments from ECB vice president Constancio saying that emergency measures are here to stay and will eventually work to drive inflation higher. On the other side of the ledger German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble gave Mario Draghi a vote of confidence and a none-too-subtle nudge to end QE.

So we have EUR/USD at 1.1964 this morning. It's struggling at the underside of resistance.

Chart

The pound roared higher overnight after the August inflation print showed an acceleration to 2.9% year on year headline inflation. That complicates the discussion around the MPC table this week. And even though most traders feel like Mark Carney's caution over the impacts of Brexit will prevail it's clear we'll see two, maybe three, dissents toward a rate hike.

So pound is sitting at 1.3287 against the US dollar while EUR/GBP is back at 0.9003. Clearly, I was wrong in my thoughts on the GBP/USD charts yesterday. It's now hit my original target for a full retracement of the run lower from 1.3267 and it is now threatening a huge break of the down trend from the Brexit day high of 1.50.

A break on the week of 1.3280 would be huge.

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The Aussie dollar is at 0.8015, down about 0.15%. I've done my usual daily column which you can read here. Synopsis? The AUD/USD is hanging tough but today's consumer sentiment might give the bears another chance to exercise their claws.

The Canadian dollar couldn’t resist the US dollar overnight either and has lost 0.6% in the past 24 hours with USD/CAD rising to 1.2184. A run toward 1.2350 seems on thee cards based on the chart setup.

The New Zealand dollar caught a bid yesterday with the release of a poll which showed the incumbent government of prime minister Bill English is indeed likely to be returned. The Newshub-Reid poll showed the National Party up 4 points at 47.3% while the Labour party went backwards with support falling 1.6 points at 37.8%. Forex traders clearly cast their vote as the Kiwi soared the best part of a cent in the next hour or so of trade.

It’s at 0.7285 now, up 0.5%. Well off the 0.7218 low.

I'd have to see 0.7335/40 break to get too excited about the kiwi though.

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Have a great day's trading.