Traders Are Wary Of Selling The US Dollar Aggressively

Originally published by AxiTrader

Welcome to the Forex Today column.

In it, I'll be trying to add a bit more colour and a lot more charts than I do in my broader overnight Market Wrap I do first thing every morning to set myself and my trading up for each day and each week.

RECAP

Forex markets were ones of specificity over the past 24 hours.

What I mean by that is there wasn't a universality of moves but rather while the overall tone of US dollar consolidation was still there it was in the background as traders reacted to individual stimuli with respect for specific pairs.

For the pound, it seemed to be hopes Theresa May will soft peddle Brexit in a speech this evening which helped it rally. For the Australian dollar it was RBA governor Lowe warning interest rate - and forex - traders not to get ahead of themselves, and for the euro it's the obvious EUR/USD bullishness which seeks to ignore anything that might be positive for the US side of the cross in favour of an almost singular focus on positives for the euro and negatives for the US.

The yen found support from the simple rate of change of the recent weakness.That's despite continued BoJ dovishness.

Specificity is good in markets. It means correlations are weaker and diversification benefits can be won. Ultimately though it's the trend in thee US dollar which has been the key driver recently.

I don't expect that to change in a hurry.

HERE'S A DEEPER DIVE - IN A LITTLE MORE DETAIL AND WITH A FEW CHARTS

I'll stick to charts today and kick off with the US Dollar Index, which was ever so close to a break but failed at resistance yesterday.

As ever I respect these levels unless or until they break - and for me I'd want to see the trendline break and then the recent high at 92.65/70 give way to be sure a turn was at hand. Support is 91.20/25 and then critical support at 90.95/91.00.

Chart

Looking at the euro it's clear that traders don't exactly agree the Fed will raise rates as much as it says it will. What's interesting about that is the market wants to disavow the fact the Fed has actually moved and embrace the ECB's prospective moves. That's a real risk for these US dollar bears over the medium term.

Anyway, the euro is higher this morning but off yesterday's pre-FOMC highs.

It's at 1.1946 this morning with support at 1.1860/65 then 1.1820 and resistance at 1.2030.

Chart

The pound leapt as traders bet Theresa May is softening Brexit - It's at 1.3577. And that means it back near its highs. I'm waiting on a signal to sell GBP/USD, but it hasn't come yet.

Chart

USD/JPY is above the 200 day moving average and sits at 1.1243. That's about 30 points below the high.

The BoJ was on script again yesterday with its decision to hold policy where it currently sits. BoJ governor Kuroda said at his press conference that "price moves remain weak and there's still some distance in achieving our price target. The BOJ will continue its powerful monetary easing to achieve 2 percent inflation at the earliest date possible...We will take further monetary easing steps if necessary."

The new kid on the block though - BoJ board member Goushi Kataoka - dissented from the decision (which was 8,1 to hold) and is in favour of even more stimulus to get inflation higher. It's clear the BoJ will be the global central bank laggard.

That should bias USD/JPY up toward the top of the range in the 114.00/50 region.

Chart

Of the commodity bloc the Aussie was absolutely belted yesterday. It's at 0.7924 now over 100 points now and around 1.25% from7am yesterday. I've done my usual AUD/USD piece and I've focused on my view that governor Lowe's speech yesterday really tried to put interest rate traders - and forex traders - in their box about rate hikes in 2018.

Yesterday I said I thought lower levels beckoned and had penciled in 0.7836/50 as a target.

The kiwi is down in sympathy, and I think some concerns about a possible Greens/Labour coalition forming government at tomorrow's election. NZD/USD is at 0.7310 down about 0.6%.

Have a great day's trading.