Although silver suffered -15-pips loss yesterday over mix US Data with positive GDP 2.1% being in main focus, XAGUSD sustained the bullish trend despite recovering US Dollar Index peeking to 100.46 high, 9-pips below 50 SMA D1, after two weeks dwelling below 99. Negative unemployment claims with 3K narrow difference on 261K previous sessions, analysts took it as neutral despite the overall outcome. But what really energized U.S index was the GDP, paving the scenario content for next FOMC meeting next Wednesday, and market took it as a sign of possible hawkish tone where FOMC releases the statement. Markets started placing bets against odds of US Fed meeting, and the process of pricing the market is already in action. Currently, silver trades 18.09 after tumbling to 18.04 early this morning.
US Index is confined with 17-pips price action and its expected to keep that thin due to further U.S Data coming today with PCE and Personal spending in the main frame with, and the result could tackle the tone of FOMC members Dudley and Kashkari. GDP, PCE, Personal Spending, CPI, and inflation are the basis that central banks focus on whenever there is an interest rate decision.
Finally, metals drop on strong US GDP data which increases bets on Fed rate hike decision. FOMC members Dudley and Kashkari will talk today and will give clues on future monetary policy.
Note: Kashkari was the only FOMC member who waved a red card in last the U.S Fed meeting where 0.25% took action.
Fundamentals:
1- USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m today at 1:30 PM GMT.
2- USD - Personal Spending m/m today at 1:30 PM GMT.
3- USD- FOMC members Dudley and Kashkari speeches today.
Technical:
Bullish Sideways
Resistance levels : R1 18.04, R2 18.30, R3 18.55
Support levels : S1 18.04, S2 17.83, S3 17.55.
Remark : Silver still to be considered bullish although XAG/USD trading near sensitive support levels that could provoke bearish forces. Staying within 29th price actions support silver bullish forces and a break above R2 alerts for larger bullish wave towards S3 level. A break below S2 level alerts for a beginning of a trend reversal, and below S3, market to consider silver bearish.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.