Oil Approaching Major Trendline Resistance

Published 16/08/2016, 11:26 am

Crude Oil rallied to a fresh one-month high amid renewed speculation about a coordinated action from major oil producing countries. Oil started its recovery last Thursday, after Saudi Arabia's oil minister said that the OPEC members and some non-members will meet on the International Energy Forum in Algeria next month and discuss possible action that may be required to stabilize the market.

Comments from Russia's energy minister Novak today helped Oil to extend gains. Novak said that Russia is determined to continue the dialogue to achieve market stability. While the OPEC has failed to take any significant action or reach an agreement during Oil's major decline in late 2015 and early 2016, Oil bulls seem more optimistic this time.

From a technical perspective, the double bottom at $39.20 has been confirmed and short-term techs have turned bullish since the break above $43. WTI is currently testing major trendline resistance and a break above would pave the way for a $50 test.

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Another chart to keep an eye on is Coffee. Price is currently testing a key support area at $135-136.50 and a break below would signal that a move back into the low $120s is likely.

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Copper has been in a mild downtrend since it posted a top at $2.2755 in mid-July. The key level to watch now is $2.11, which acted as solid support level several times before. A daily close below would suggest that we'll see a retest of the $2.00 soon.

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Since the topside in Natural Gas was capped at $3.00 and the big rally ended in June, price action has been lacklustre. NG came under some pressure earlier this month and fell to $2.51, but it was able to bounce from there and has been consolidating in a $2.51-60 range since then. Short-term techs remain bullish as long as the $2.50 support level remains intact and for now, buying dips remains the favorable strategy. However, expect a decent amount of stop loss orders below $2.50 and into the low $2.40s. For those looking to buy NG at a better price than $2.50 support, wait for the stops to be cleared and price to test the $2.31 support level (January 16 high).

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