Final hours! Save up to 55% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

NFP Preview: Today's Jobs Report Set to Test Bulls' Resolve - What to Expect

Published 02/02/2024, 06:51 pm
US500
-
MSFT
-
AAPL
-
AMZN
-
META
-

Stocks rebounded yesterday ahead of today’s job report, with expectations for 185,000 new jobs to have been created, down from 216,000 last month.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to around 3.8% from 3.7% last month, while wage growth is expected to drop to 0.3% in January from 0.4% in December and stay steady at 4.1% y/y.

Remember, last year, we got that shock January job report that was much better than expected.

We saw the S&P 500 rebound yesterday and managed to stall at 4900; it was the spot where the index opened yesterday.

Given the results from Meta (NASDAQ:META) and its big move higher, it seems we could fill that gap today, as long as the jobs report comes in ok and has no surprises.S&P 500 Index Chart

I remained focused on the Implied Volatility levels for the Mag7 names and the S&P 500 and see how this plays out.

I’m not sure how the movement in Meta will play into this because the shares are up a lot after it announced a dividend and added on its share buyback program.

Implied Volatility Chart

Meta released results that were much better than expected, which I would call shock-and-awe on the revenue beat and even the guidance for revenue next quarter.

The new dividend was a surprise, so the stock is up 14% after hours. Some of this may have been done to overshadow the higher capex and higher-than-expected expenses.

The company sees a capex of $30 to $37 billion in 2024 versus estimates of $33.4 billion.

The company also sees total expenses at $94 to $99 billion versus estimates of $96.4 billion. The move up seems like a lot to me, so it will be interesting to see if all the gains hold. Meta Inc. Chart

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is trading up 7.5% after hours, which also seems like a lot, considering AWS missed revenue estimates, coming in at $24.204 billion versus estimates of $24.221 billion.

This is fractionally, but considering the size of the beat by Azure, the AWS numbers do not seem to compare as well.

The company also guided first-quarter revenue of $138 to $143.5 billion versus estimates of $142 billion.

It is just surprising I guess to have seen Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) go down after it was reported and to see these Amazon AWS numbers for Amazon to go up.

I get that operating income was better, but still. I own both Microsoft and Amazon.Amazon Inc., Chart

Of course, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported good numbers on the top and bottom but had horrible numbers out of China, which was a big concern of mine.

The company reported China revenue of $20.8 billion versus estimates of $23.5 billion and an 11.4% miss. Services revenue for Apple also missed coming in at $23.1 billion versus estimates of $23.3. billion.

Apple does give numbers for guidance, but said it expected revenue to be flat to last year for the fiscal second quarter, versus expectation for 1% growth. The stock is down about 3.5% after hours.Apple Inc. Chart

So overall, it was just a strange day, and I could imagine today getting stranger with the job report still out there.

Original Post

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.