Natural Gas: Reversal Likely Friday After a Wobbly Couple of Days

Movements by natural gas futures in the first three trading sessions indicate wild price swings are likely with swings in national demand between light and moderate.

According to natgasweather.com reports: After moderate demand the past 3-days, national demand will drop to light levels Thu-Fri as a warm ridge covers most of the southern and eastern half of the U.S. with very nice highs of the upper 60s to 80s besides locally hotter 90s. There will be a cool shot upstream over the Rockies that will push into the Plains for strong thunderstorms. Once this system advances eastward late this weekend into next week, national demand will increase to stronger levels as lows of the 20s to lower 40s covers much of the U.S. Overall, slightly stronger than normal demand when averaged over weekly time frames.

A break between systems will set up over the eastern half of the U.S. Thu-Fri, with light national demand ahead of a strong Spring storm across the central & northern U.S. this weekend resulting in stronger national demand.

The next two EIA reports will be closely watched when U.S. production comes in the next few days to see if it drops from very high levels last week of 101 Bcf/day. If LNG exports hold at 14.5 Bcf and if production were to drop under 100 Bcf/day, this would be a welcome sign of a tighter balance that could combat a heavily oversupplied market as surpluses increase to over +350 Bcf.

As I mentioned in my last article, at such crucial point in time, the best strategy could be to short one lot of May 23 in case of a steep upward move above $3.767 and buy one lot of Jul. 23 in case of a steep fall below $2.2 and 1 lot at sub-$2 levels. This strategy might be risky as the buying in Jul. 23 futures looks to favor this strategy with a vigil eye on the news flow.

Natural gas futures showed good strength after hitting a fresh low last Friday of $1.948, faced stiff resistance at $2.383, and started to turn back up to $2.173 on Apr. 19. On Apr. 20, inventory announcement is likely to surge bearish sentiments but wild price swings are likely from this point, and could push futures once again to hit $2.6 if they hold above $2.416 on Friday.

Technically, in the daily chart, the natural gas futures are trying to hold above $2.173, despite selling pressure which indicates a reversal is likely after the inventory announcement on Thursday. Bulls will get the first confirmation only after closing above $2.416. 

In the 1-hr chart, futures are still above the 200 DMA which is at $2.165, indicating a reversal soon.

Any downward move will provide a good opportunity to go long as the significant buying support at $2 is likely to generate a strong reversal.

Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in natural gas futures. Readers should take a trading position at their own risk, as natural gas is one of the most liquid commodities in the world.