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Michael Ashton
You Cannot Inflate the Debt Away By Michael Ashton - May 03, 2024

There is a popular meme that the government has an incentive to inflate, because the same debt is worth less in real terms at a higher price level. If inflation is high enough, then the government (it...

Chris Becker
03.05.24 Macro Morning By Chris Becker - May 03, 2024

Anxiety and fear over what could or could not happen at last night’s FOMC meeting was met with relief as the Fed didn’t really change signalling on its interest rate trajectory. Bond...

Chris Becker
02.05.24 Macro Afternoon By Chris Becker - May 02, 2024

With the FOMC meeting absorbed without much fanfare overnight, equity volatility was limited in today’s session here in Asia with closed Chinese markets helping smooth out the wobbles on Wall...

Michael Kramer
Fed Has No Idea When It Might Be Able to Cut Rates By Michael Kramer - May 02, 2024

The Fed meetings seem to create more confusion than needed, but it is what is what it is. I know that even though I wrote yesterday that at 2:35 PM ET, it was possible that we saw the usual FOMC press...

Chris Becker
02.05.24 Macro Morning By Chris Becker - May 02, 2024

Anxiety and fear over what could or could not happen at last night’s FOMC meeting was met with relief as the Fed didn’t really change signalling on its interest rate trajectory. Bond...

Michael Lebowitz
Fed Policies Turn the Wealth Gap Into a Chasm By Michael Lebowitz - May 01, 2024

In an op-ed for the Washington Post on November 5, 2010, Ben Bernanke did a victory lap, praising the Fed’s efforts in stemming the financial crisis. In the article, he discusses how QE and...

Michael Kramer
Markets Are Hedging Against a Hawkish Pivot Today   By Michael Kramer - May 01, 2024

The S&P 500 was down about 1.6% heading into the FOMC meeting and Quarterly Refunding Announcement today. The VIX 1-Day was up 8.3 points to 18.10, which suggests much of the decline yesterday...

Chris Becker
01.05.24 Macro Morning By Chris Becker - May 01, 2024

Fear over what could or could not happen at tonight’s FOMC meeting combined with end of month window dressing sent Wall Street into a spin overnight, with stocks losing between 1-2%, taking out...

James Picerno
Recession Warning Via States' Economies Was a False Alarm By James Picerno - Apr 30, 2024

The value of modeling recession risk-based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that an...

Chris Becker
30.04.24 Macro Afternoon By Chris Becker - Apr 30, 2024

The return of Japanese traders to their desks after a long weekend break has seen some reduction in volatility in Yen today following the spike from last week’s meeting while Chinese stocks are...

Chris Becker
30.04.24 Macro Morning By Chris Becker - Apr 30, 2024

Wall Street continued its rebound overnight although European stocks stumbled as tech stock earnings, particularly Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) helped steady the risk ship. The USD pulled back against most of...

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