Market Overview

Several estimates of fourth-quarter economic activity for the US have turned higher recently. The improvements clash with ongoing recession forecasts, but for the upcoming Q4 report the outlook...

Financial conditions have eased dramatically since the middle of October This has acted to support stock prices However, conditions are likely to start tightening again Something seems broken....

Last week I rang the bell telling investors and traders to wake up and smell the hot coffee because 2023 is going to be a life-changing year, and likely, not for the better.The 30,000-foot...

The two main forces driving global macro and markets are the rate of change of (nominal) growth and the monetary policy stanceReal-economy money creation and leading macro indicators inform us on the...

The Federal Reserve appears to be approaching the end of its rate-hiking policy, based on estimates from the bond market and economic conditions. But there’s a wild card that could derail the...

Last year, global hedge funds recorded the worst returns in 14 years after the Federal Reserve’s extremely tight monetary policy weighed on asset prices. On a more positive note, the...

What was the most disappointing element in the Fed minutes last night was that the Fed minutes didn't indicate that the committee members are of the mind frame of lowering the interest rate this year...

Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The rest of the field lost ground last year, in some cases by hefty degrees, based on a...

There may be no recession in 2023, just a period of slower growth It will allow the Fed to keep financial conditions tight. Tight financial conditions mean a stronger dollar, higher rates, and...

2022 held a lot of hard lessons for investors This bear market is unique, but that doesn't mean it will last forever There is reason to think next year will be different We are approaching the close...

Investing in US stocks by way of risk factors has been a humbling experience this year. Short of a miraculous rally between now and Friday’s close, this realm of financial engineering is on...

In this year’s write-up, I will review my ten predictions for 2023. Anything can happen, but this exercise has a point, which helps me lay out a game plan and thought process for the path that...

Trading and investing are much more complex and challenging than most people think. While countless books have been written about how to trade and invest, most skip over what I consider to be the...

Fed’s Powell affirms rate hikes to continue in 2023, but markets show doubt Economist Roubini sees a prolonged recession as issues mount Central bankers need to do a better job, and more dissent...