Originally published by Chamber of Merchants
Would You Buy This?
Author: the Speculator
As a bit of a follow up on the latest post from The Merchant, I thought I'd take some time and put together a bit of a perspective post.
So would ya? Would you buy it? The chart below does not even need labels or axis. It’s a simple question – whether it’s the newest blow up doll manufacturer, or an oil company, does that look like an attractive entry point? Or an attractive EXIT point?
Bubble?
Many people have called the top on the market above, one can not predict when a bubble will burst, only when the signs are there that facilitates a bursting bubble.
Many low quality IPO’s?
While its fair to say we have satisfied most (if not all) of the Market Top Signs, lets have some fun.
Recently filed IPO’s on the Nasdaq 100. There are so many to list, here are a few of the recent ones:
Fred Corp – Employees 1
Our company was incorporated on July 1, 2016 in the State of Nevada. We are a development-stage company formed to produce artificial flowers made of fabric.
Remaro Group – Employees 1
We are a touristic agency, currently located in Ecuador, that seeks tour guides for individual or group tours in particular localities. We aim to offer services of a freelance local guide, known also as a pointman.
Kalmin Corp – Employees 1
We are a development-stage company formed to create special equipment for drinking mate tea – Kalabas.
OS Support Inc. – Employees 1
OS Support, Inc. was incorporated in the State of Nevada as a for-profit Company on April 15, 2015. OS Support, Inc. is a development-stage company that intends to be an online shopping mall specializing in bathroom and kitchen fixtures and faucets.
Fintech Acquisition Corp. – Employees 2
We are a blank check company formed in May 2015 that will seek to effect a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses or assets, which we refer to throughout this prospectus as our initial business combination.
Lazex Inc. – Employees 1
We are the company at the stage of the development aimed at adult individuals or groups of adults intending to receive consultation concerning trips they are planning to have.
Kriptech International – Employees 2
We intend to consult our customers on the terms of how to obtain a visa to a particular country, what the requirements are for visa-free countries, for instance a maximum period of stay, or countries issuing visa on arrival.
Temir Corp – Employees 1
We were incorporated in the State of Nevada on May 19, 2016. We are development stage company and commence operations in tourism. We plan to develop a website that will display a variety of travel tours we plan to offer in Kyrgyzstan, and will advertise our services and tours.
Kokos Group Inc – Employees 0?!
We are an early stage company with the intention to engage in the business of the production, distribution and marketing of bottled organic coconut water from bulk coconut water sourced from the Philippine and bottled in the United States. We currently have no product, but plan on developing our first bottled coconut water product under the brand name “Koos Coconut Water”.
What to do now?
Well there is not much to do at least for the next 3 weeks until Trump gets into office but sit back and wait. The market could continue its parabolic blow off top until 22,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average with not much in its way but blue skies. “If” you wanted to trade – the VIX looks like a decent trade coming into inauguration and if you wanted to risk some capital, use 50% on S&P 500 puts and another 50% if the market keeps going up. Another play would be to purchase GDX (NYSE:GDX) or VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE:GDXJ) shares or calls.
Personally I am staying with Australian Gold Miners because that is where I see the best value with a falling AUD and rising gold price. Being realistic at a $1500 USD gold price in 2017 with a 60c AUD/USD exchange rate gives us a $2500 Australian Dollar Gold Price.
How will that affect the Australian gold miners? (assuming costs remained the same)
Northern Star Resources Ltd (AX:NST) – 156% increase in profits
Ramelius Resources Ltd (AX:RMS) – 180% increase in profits
Resolute Mining Ltd (AX:RSG) – 281% increase in profits
Which way will the Dow/Gold Ratio go in 2017?
– The Speculator