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Originally published by AxiTrader
Welcome to the Forex Today column.
In it, I'll be trying to add a bit more colour and a lot more charts than I do in my broader overnight Market Wrap I do first thing every morning to set myself and my trading up for each day and each week.
It's easy to dismiss market price action and just say that traders are waiting for Jackson Hole. But while that is true for the euro it is not true across the board as traders buy Canadian dollar, test the Aussie, and knock kiwi lower.
It's this "individualisation" of forex pairs - if I can call it that - again suggests to me that there is more going on in forex markets right now than the overall focus on the US dollar side of the pairs and Jackson Hole would suggest.
It doesn't mean that the US dollar isn't important. rather it means the movements we see in forex in the week's and months ahead are less likely to be universally US dollar up or down driven.
Anyway. This morning we have euro still around 1.18, sterling stuck at 1.28, USD/JPY respecting the bottom of the range and back in the mid 109's while the Swissie is at 0.9650. Of the commodity bloc the Aussie came back from support and is at 79 cents, the Canadian dollar is a little stronger despite oil's fall and the kiwi is, well, struggling.
In those moves you can see that forex traders are looking for the next catalyst, the next sign of what central banks might do, and are waiting for this and more information in the data. Naturally, Jackson Hole is a big focus tonight but so too might the US durable goods release for July.
I want to kick off with the kiwi this morning. It came under heavy selling pressure pretty much from the time London traders entered the fray last night. But while the Aussie found support and recovered back to 79 cents the kiwi still languishes at 72 cents.
Certainly, the kiwi found support where I suggested it should yesterday - 0.7190 - but as the new day opens it's slipping again.
And on that front, I want to highlight an alternative view of the outlook for the kiwi I saw float by in a chart on Twitter. I think it was one of the Westpac forex guys who suggested NZD/USD was about to break a head and shoulders pattern which would then focus trade down toward 69 cents.
When I look at the chart myself, and abstract all of my trend lines and Fibos, it is easy to see why traders may have a downside focus for NZD/USD.
Euro is caught in a a clear range between 1.1660/80 and 1.1910/20. As we wait for the next shoe to drop whether it is Jackson Hole, Yellen, Draghi. or the data that knocks EUR/USD either outside the range, or continues it, I thought I'd post the weekly chart.
The green you can see is a confluence of lows and highs for the Euro between 2010 and now. That zone - 1.1710 to 1.2030 - is where the euro currently sits. If EUR/USD breaks to the top side it could run for another 7 to 8 cents. No doubt that is something Mario Draghi - even the hawkish Jens Weidmann - would like to avoid.
It's looking a little toppy on the weeklies. But 1.1660 would need to break to get things looking bearish.
USD/JPY has a clear range bottom at 108. If any of these levels break we’ll know the next leg of the US dollar’s recovery – or not – has begun. But for now, traders are respecting the range.
The Aussie is hanging relatively tough at 0.7900 this morning as metals and iron ore remain strong, the global economy looks healthy, and the data continues to underpin the RBA’s conclusion that the Australian economy is heading back to – perhaps above – potential.
While the kiwi is pressure and the Aussie recovered the Canadian dollar is doing altogether better with USD/CAD down 0.3% to 1.2514. It's looking a lot like NZD/USD did when it bounced bck above 73 cents before the latest collapse.
1.2500/05 seems to be the key short term level to watch.
Last but not least. The pound recovered from a little weakness to settle back near 1.2800 after a low around 1.2773 overnight.
That's not terrible price action by any stretch of the imagination after the combination of Q2 GDP and a CBI retail survey gave a clear impression that the UK economy is facing headwinds.
UK GDP came in as expected but the break up was a bit worrying given it was driven by consumption – a good thing – but little else. Investment and trade made zero contribution to growth. Given that the risk for the UK economy was highlighted in a separate CBI monthly retail sales balance slid to -10 in August from +22 last month, its lowest since July 2016. Interesting.
1.2745/50 is important support near term.
Have a great day's trading.
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