Originally published by AxiTrader
Welcome to the Forex Today column.
In it, I'll be trying to add a bit more colour and a lot more charts than I do in my broader overnight market Wrap I do first thing every morning to set myself and my trading up for each day and each week.
RECAP
Safe haven currencies, plus gold, and bonds have caught a bid as the tension between Washington and Pyongyang increases.
Overnight US President Trump suggested maybe his language around "fire and fury" hadn't been tough enough. This morning KCNA, the North Korean state news agency, said the country vows to mercilessly wipe out the provocateurs and that the US will suffer a shameful defeat.
The chance of a misstep, an accident, grows as the rhetoric amps up. Haven't these folks ever played noughts and crosses? It seems not.
So this morning USD/JPY is down near 109 as it closes in on the bottom of the range. USD/CHF is still near 0.96, euro has remained strong at 1.1764 after the second day of a strong bounce. The commodity bloc is under a little pressure from the risk off tone to markets, while sterling lags also.
HERE'S A DEEPER DIVE - IN A LITTLE MORE DETAIL AND WITH A FEW CHARTS
As I noted yesterday, the US dollar is not benefiting from safe haven flows at the moment because it is one of the protagonists. Europe is not and is far enough away to stay out of the mess, Switzerland certainly is a real safe haven, and even though Japan is caught between the two belligerents the very nature of its national balance sheet means the yen too is acting as a safe haven.
So this morning we have the US Dollar Index down 0.2% at 93.36.
EUR/USD is a little higher at 1.1764. But that is a sensational performance and recovery after another fall overnight saw it trade down to a low of 1.1703, or there abouts.
It's not the Swissie or the yen, but euro is clearly benefiting from safe haven flows at the moment. German, French, and UK, bonds have all rallied hard in capital terms this week.
And looking at the chart it's clear the 38.2% level has provided a fulcrum against which euro buyers can push. I wonder though, given recent German and EU data flow, the impact on the ECB outlook, and the technical setup medium term whether that will be enough of a pullback in euro.
My target remains 1.1600 and perhaps 1.1480.
The Swiss franc retains its bid tone in this environment and it too rallied hard from a selloff overnight to sit at 0.9622 as I write. It hasn't taken out the lows from two nights ago yet. If it does a move to 0.950/60 opens up.
The yen played catch up and has gained 0.77% with USD/JPY falling to 109.17. I know its weird that the yen is gaining and USD/JPY is falling given that the DPRK threatened to fire the missile at Guam across Japanese territory. But this is the nature of forex markets. The yen retains a safe haven status.
108.72 is the recent low with 107.80/108.10 the next support below that.
The Aussie hasn’t done too badly against the US dollar – all things considered. I've discussed why the Aussie is hanging in and what the outlook might be.
The pound is down about 0.2% at 1.2974 after more signs in the data last night that the UK economy is still struggling to gain traction. The current account deficit hasn't benefited from any J curve yet flowing from the big depreciation in sterling while house price growth has slowed materially.
The Canadian dollar continues to suffer and is down 0.32% after oil collapsed and house price growth slowed. USD/CAD is at 1.2741 up 0.35%.
And last but not least the kiwi has been hammered over the past 24 hours. That comes after a dovish RBNZ statement and comments from governor Wheeler that he’d like a lower NZ dollar. He’s got that today with NZD/USD off 0.85% at 0.7275. Ouch.
Have a great day's trading.