DXY sagged last night as EUR bounced:
Australian dollar popped and dropped:
![AUDUSD AUDUSD](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/bebe350a78a240a1a325af1e934fe9b2.png)
![BRENT BRENT](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/b5e5cd16f8ee1a8eb23c408b121a92b7.png)
Base metals are hoping for China stimulus:
![COPPER COPPER](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/a9001496b636373b290eaf25b2e4e755.png)
Big miners (NYSE:RIO) too:
![RIO RIO](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/9ccafd21d1243b47ead2b7235fe7c67a.png)
EM stocks having a crack:
![EEM EEM](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/9244794381260dd27b733769f81e921f.png)
Junk yawn:
![HYG HYG](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/613c39f275878a3f8cbdfdedef357d4b.png)
Treasuries backing up again, curve squashed:
![YIELDS YIELDS](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/3e14596fb4598d6354db6ceac73e1c41.png)
Stocks only go up:
![SPX SPX](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/cd95b69b9356781bd8d17be3bb69ea8a.png)
Basically, the Fed delivered a hawkish hold as expected. It also released its quarterly projections which suggest another two rate hikes:
Forex is still rerunning a mini-me version of the China reopening pattern:
- DXY sliding as the Fed slows and global growth is perceived as higher than the US;
- China stimulus helping it and Europe, lifting EUR;
- AUD up with commodities.
I have my doubts:
- The Fed is trying to kick one leg out and the higher markets go the more likely it will kick harder;
- Chinese stimulus is an all-or-nothing proposition given its liquidity traps, and
- Europe is heading for recession.
Beyond this short-term stuff, my base case is still a global recession, lower commodity prices and AUD.