Originally published by AxiTrader
The latest data from the CFTC shows that there have been some notable shifts in speculative FX positioning recently. Speculators now hold the highest amount of euro long positions since May 2007, even though the euro has been struggling in the past few weeks. Please note though that the data was collected before the Fed and ECB decision.
Pound net positioning increased from 6k to 11k long. The Brexit negotiations have advanced somewhat, and a jump in UK inflation fuelled speculation that the next rate hike could come sooner than initially anticipated.
Meanwhile, positioning for the other major currencies has changed very little or not at all. Yen, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar positioning all remained steady at net short 114k, net short 29k and net long 42k respectively. Meanwhile, speculators added to their Australian dollar longs, bringing net positioning from 40k to 41k.
The next CFTC report on Friday will include the shifts that followed after the Fed, ECB and BOE meetings and will signal how the speculators will enter into the new trading year. So far, it seems clear that traders are not very bullish on the US dollar, with the safe havens yen and franc the only exemptions.