EUR/USD gaps upward for second time as French Presidential Elections end with Macron's declared winner, beating Le Pen also for the second as the two candidates fold the final round yesterday. Macron collected almost 65% of French voters, and the candidate with his Pro EU sharp tone, eased worries of EU neighbor nations, and Frexit shall never be spoken off, and FRANCE Shall stay in Euro-zone. As a result the pair gapped +23-pips with 6 months french-highs at 1.1021, with a reminder of hold old levels before Brexit took place.
Although expectations that EUR/USD should have surged higher giving the above fundamentals, the fact that markets saw Macron's triumph as an inevitable taking into consideration the huge gap between him and Le Pen's polls, which have slowed the intensive bullish attack towards higher levels, and when traders receive news as forecasts, usually markets act less severe to the released news. The pair failed to withhold the 1.10 level, currently trading 1.0970 intraday, but sustaining the 1.09 level should keep bulls waves on stand by motion. Euro index almost touched the 98 level but failed with 3-pips behind at 98.97 high for today. On the other hand, US dollar remains weak as the Index plunged to 98.54 low this morning.
As for economic data that should influence EUR/USD, the pair awaits low impact news with German Factory Orders m/m and Sentix report today, but giving the circumstances, a positive data today will be like pouring gas on fire as the pair just need a slight push for additional rallies. Tomorrow will be more action with German Industrial Production m/m and German Trade balance, followed by French Gov Budget Balance, and On Wednesday, Mr. Draghi, head of ECB will cross wires and it's been clear in recent appearances how Draghi Favors lower EUR/USD, so the speech will be highly anticipated with the possible content.
Fundamentals :
1 - EUR - German Factory Orders m/m today at 6:00 AM GMT.
2- EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence today at 8:30 AM GMT.
3- EUR - German Industrial Production and Trade Balance tomorrow at 6:00 AM GMT.
4- EUR- French Gov. Budget Balance tomorrow 6:45 AM GMT.
5 EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech on Wednesday at 12:00 PM GMT.
Technical Overview :
Trend: Bullish Sideways
Resistance levels: R1 1.1027, R2 1.1068, R3 1.1125
Support levels: S1 1.0936, S2 1.0860, S3 1.0778
Comment: The market reminds bullish despite the pair minor retrracement. A minor downward correction is expected but staying above S1 level calls for additional rallies. Closing above S2 still remain positive. Dips should fight S1 level, but in case of penetration, S2 will be next destination. Closing below S3 is needed for trend reversal. The other scenario, in case EUR/USD breaks above R1 level, market should expect intensive attacks towards R2, then R3 level.