Originally published by AxiTrader
Quick Recap
There were tentative signs as we end last week that the US dollar's exponential rally across emerging markets might be losing momentum. That can go some way to relieve the pressure that regional central banks and policy makers have been under in recent weeks.
It's only tentative and the release of US Q3 GDP Tuesday and non-farm payrolls Friday - not to mention other US data and the OPEC meeting in Vienna Wednesday - means the US dollar is still the key driver of EMForex.
What You Need To Know for the week ahead in EMForex
You can't throw a blanket over EMForex.
Mexico is not Chile, is not Columbia, or Brazil. China is not Korea, Thailand, or Malaysia. Turkey is none of the above and there are so many permutations across the rest of the EMForex world that individual idiosyncrasies naturally matter.
But one thing that all emerging markets have in common at the moment is the pressure that the stronger dollar has brought to bear as investors have pulled cash from EM.
How the US dollar does in the week ahead is as the Turkish central bank found last week when it hiked rates to 8% in many ways more important than anything that happens in these economies.
Here's a look at the key data for EMForex in teh week ahead:
ASIA
Monday November 28:
Taiwan - Consumer confidence is due with forecasts of a drop to 78 from last week's 78.95
Thailand - Trade is expected to show exports increase to 4% from last months 3.4% yoy growth rate while imports are expected to reverse down 5.7% from +5.6% last.
Tuesday November 29:
Korea - With the trouble surround the presidency of Park Guen-hye it's no surprise that business confidence in Korea is expected to dip to 66 from last month's 71.
Thailand - Thai industrial production for October is expected to increase to 2.5% from 0.6% in September yoy.
Wednesday November 30:
Korea - It's a big day for Korean Won traders with the release of Construction output, industrial production, manufacturing production, and retail sales. The production numbers will be closely watched as an indicator of overall global as well as Korean economic demand and output.
China - Westapc MNI consumer sentiment is one of those indicators that everyone will be watching in a few years when China is further down the track of economic transition. But for now it is a non-market mover. But still a survey that gives an excellent break up of what is going on in the economy.
Thailand - the release of the coincident index, private consumption, the current account, and retail sales will give a window into how the economy is tracking and any impacts of the Kings recent death on activity levels.
India - the government releases its budget data for October along with infrastructure output. But the big daddy is GDP for Q3 which is expected to come in at 7.2% - slightly stronger than the 7.1% yoy growth rate reported for the last quarter.
Thursday December 1:
Korea - It's a big day for the economy many see as the canary in the coal mine of global trade. Korea releases its current account, inflation for November, and associated trade data, as well as the manufacturing PMI. It's this last data point - expected to print 46.9 from 48 last - which traders of the Won are likely to watch most closely.
Other Manufacturing PMI's across the region - Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand. And of course the official, NBS, and unofficial Caixin manufacturing and non-manufacturing (in teh case of the NBS) PMI's in China are also out.
It is these latter Chinese PMI's which all the world will be watching closely as they do each month. here's a chart from trading economics.com of the NBS Chinese PMI's
Indonesia - releases inflation and tourist numbers.
Thailand - business confidence and infaltion are on the docket Thursday.
Friday December 2;
Korea - again opens the batting with the release of final Q3 GDP. It's expected to show a slight downgrade to 0.7% from the previously released read of 0.8%.
PMI releases - Caixin non manufacturing in China is expected to dip to 52.2 from 52.4. India also releases services PMI while Hong Kong releases the PMI.
LATIN AMERICA
Monday November 28:
Brazil - releases its budget balance
Mexico - release its unemployment rate which is expected to continue its gradual move higher. But the outcome of 4.15% the market expects remains very low and should not harm the Mexican peso.
Columbia - cement production
Tuesday November 29:
Chile - copper, industrial and manufacturing production are all out for October. Last month's 2.5% fall in production and Codelco's report last week could put further upward pressure on Dr Copper's price if production continues to slip in year on year terms. Although overall production is rising again in recent months.
Wednesday November 30:
Brazil - It's going to be a potentially big day for the Real with the release of Q3 GDP. After last quarter's 0.6% fall the market is expecting a 0.6% fall again - or worse. That would drop the yoy growth rate down to 3.3% the pundits are forecasting.
And the BCB (Banco central do Brasil) hands down its next interest rate decision. It would be a brave EM central bank that cut rates - even if the economy needs it. And it does. So there is a chance for more Real volatility if the BCB cuts to 13.75% or lower.
Chile - retail sales are expected tp slip 1% mom bring the yoy growth rate sharply down to 1.5%. Unemployment is also out and is expected to rise to 7% from 6.8% previously.
Colombia - unemployment is expected to remain steady at 8.5%.
Thursday December 1:
Brazil - manufacturing PMI for November.
Friday December 2:
Mexico - Minutes from the last Banxico (Mexican central bank) meeting a couple of week's ago where they jacked rates up 50 bps to 5.25% will be interesting reading. Business confidence for November is also out. I'll be interested in how that looks in the wake of a trump electoral victory.
Brazil - Trade data is out.
Have a great week's trading