Breaking News
Close
Investing Pro 0
NEW! Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+ Try 7 Days Free

Currencies Snap Back On +1,200 Point Dow Turnaround

By Kathy LienForexJan 25, 2022 10:08
au.investing.com/analysis/currencies-snap-back-on-1200-point-dow-turnaround-200497819
Currencies Snap Back On +1,200 Point Dow Turnaround
By Kathy Lien   |  Jan 25, 2022 10:08
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

We have not seen this type of volatility in the financial markets since the beginning of the pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down -1,115 points in the first half of the NY session but staged a dramatic turnaround to end the day in positive territory, up nearly 100 points.

With risk appetite driving currency flows, it was no surprise to see pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/JPY recover alongside equities. The US dollar maintained its bid, outperforming most of the major currencies ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. The central bank is widely expected to prepare the market for tightening in March, and they could even suggest that it may be necessary to front-load tightening. The prospect of hawkishness and the risk of a surprise rate hike should keep the dollar bid ahead of FOMC.

The recent sell-off in stocks reflects concern about the Fed tightening when economic momentum is slowing. However, after eight straight days of selling and a 10% drop year to date, more attractive valuations, especially in technology stocks, attracted bargain hunters. The hope that risk aversion is easing also helped take currencies off their lows. Looking ahead, V-shaped moves like the one we saw today tend to have at least a day or two of continuation, and with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the central bank’s guidance will determine whether the bears return.

Although the latest consumer spending and manufacturing sector report disappointed, inflation grew at its fastest pace in December since 1982. The market has fully priced in a rate hike for March with a small chance of a 50bp move. The only question tomorrow is the aggressiveness of the central bank’s guidance. If they suggest that front-loaded tightening is necessary or that four rate hikes in 2022 cannot be ruled, stocks could resume their slide, sending lower risk currencies and higher US dollars.

Today, one of the weakest currencies was the Australian dollar, which saw PMIs drop to 8-month lows. Manufacturing activity contracted in Australia, and service sector PMIs dropped twice as fast as the manufacturing index. Omicron, supply chain issues, and a peak in the global recovery are some of Australia’s problems, but risk aversion also played a big role in today’s initial decline. Although Q4 CPI is scheduled for release this evening, the Reserve Bank’s dovish stance should limit the currency’s reaction to a good report.

The New Zealand dollar also followed lower despite ongoing strength in the economy. This afternoon we learned that service sector activity accelerated, matching the trend in manufacturing. Fonterra raised its milk price payout, which is good for producers.

Steady oil prices and the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting (which we’ll discuss more tomorrow) helped limit losses in the Canadian dollar.

Sterling also struggled amidst softer PMIs, whereas the euro held up fairly well as activity in Germany improved. Although the euro area flash PMI dropped more than expected from 53.3 to 52.4, the decline was due entirely to services as the manufacturing index rose to 59 in January from 58 in December. Activity in Germany appears unfazed by Omicron, with improvements reported in both the manufacturing and service sectors. This reinforces the German ZEW index increase and suggests strength for tomorrow’s German IFO report.

Currencies Snap Back On +1,200 Point Dow Turnaround
 

Related Articles

Currencies Snap Back On +1,200 Point Dow Turnaround

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (1)
Berat Azizi
Berat Azizi Jan 25, 2022 11:35
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
buy
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Our Apps
DOWNLOAD APPApp store
Investing.com
© 2007-2022 Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
  • Sign up for FREE and get:
  • Real-Time Alerts
  • Advanced Portfolio Features
  • Personalized Charts
  • Fully-Synced App
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email