After last week’s quick correction to sub-$35k level, bitcoin showed a sharp rebound to $38k. However, despite its solid fluctuation, the upside has been suppressed at the $38k psychological level. One of the reasons why bitcoin failed to breach that level is the SEC’s decision to postpone its decision to approve or disapprove Hasdex’s bitcoin ETF on Thursday. The Commission also postponed its decision on Franklin Templeton and GlobalX’s bitcoin ETF the following day, making the next deadline January 2024. Until then, not much could be expected from the Commission or the sponsors of the respective ETF, but the macro environment seems to be in favor of bitcoin.
October’s U.S. CPI and PPI have indicated some slowdown in inflation, and although retail sales in October did not decline as much as the market anticipated, it dropped from +0.9% in September to -0.1%, indicating weaker consumption. The Fed has yet to decide what to do with their policy rate at the December meeting, but economic data in the third quarter so far could justify the end of rate hikes. Bitcoin needs a catalyst to breach $38k and November's FOMC minutes, which will be released on Tuesday, could provide one.