Breaking News
Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+: Start 7 Day FREE Trial Register here
Investing Pro 0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Chart Of The Day: Russian Ruble Pressured By U.S. Sanctions, Oil Outlook

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)ForexApr 27, 2021 23:31
au.investing.com/analysis/chart-of-the-day-russian-ruble-pressured-by-us-sanctions-oil-outlook-200462286
Chart Of The Day: Russian Ruble Pressured By U.S. Sanctions, Oil Outlook
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)   |  Apr 27, 2021 23:31
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

Unlike the US Federal Reserve, which has been going out of its way to assure investors it won't be raising rates anytime soon, Russia’s central bank hiked interest rates on Apr. 23, for the second time this year, from 4.5% to 5%. Compared to the US's near-zero rate, on the face of it, a bullish ruble position verus the dollar should be a no-brainer for traders.

So why has the RUB recently been sold off? Perhaps investors aren’t convinced of the European country’s economic stability given the sanctions imposed on it by the US because of the standoff over Russia's annexation of the Crimea as well as its treatment of anti-government activists domestically.

Plus if we’re right about oil's technicals, crude prices are likely headed lower, which means the ruble, as a petrocurrency, will probably suffer.

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

That possibility is currently being signaled in the daily chart for WTI. The energy commodity is retesting the top of a descending triangle which is formed when sellers continuously lower their offers, because buyers aren't showing a strong enough level of demand. A downside breakout would complete the pattern, as the level of seller panic rises since buying appetite shrinks, leaving anxious sellers increasingly willing to sell at any price.

As for the USD/RUB, it completed a small H&S top, a reversal pattern.

USD/RUB Daily
USD/RUB Daily

Since then, the price has been pushed down by the 200 DMA for a third day. The downside projection is even clearer on the broader, weekly chart.

USD/RUB Weekly
USD/RUB Weekly

The H&S’s target would be the bottom of a symmetrical triangle since the March 2020 peak. If the pattern fails, we can expect a plunge to retest the long-term uptrend since the May 2015 low.

Trading Strategies

Conservative traders should wait for a return move that will find resistance by the neckline before committing to a short position.

Moderate traders would wait for the corrective rally for a better entry, not necessarily for added confirmation.

Aggressive traders could short at will, if they accept the higher risk as the price for the higher potential reward which comes from being ahead of the rest of the market. Money management is key. If you don’t know how to do that, here is a basic trade format:

Trade Sample

  • Entry: 75.0000
  • Stop-Loss: 75.5000
  • Risk: 5.000 pips
  • Target: 73.5000
  • Reward: 15.000 pips
  • Risk:Reward Ratio: 1:3

Author's Note: We don’t know the future. We are just navigating a potential trade based on statistical results, which don’t always work out. Even if we’re right in our interpretation of the chart, the trade sample can still fail. It's subject to your timing, budget and temperament. Until you learn how to write a customized trading plan, you can use ours, for the purpose of learning, not profiting, or you’ll end up with neither.

Chart Of The Day: Russian Ruble Pressured By U.S. Sanctions, Oil Outlook
 

Related Articles

Chart Of The Day: Russian Ruble Pressured By U.S. Sanctions, Oil Outlook

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email