Originally published by AxiTrader
Welcome to the Forex Today column.
In it I'll be trying to add a bit more colour and a lot more charts than I do in my broader overnight Market Wrap I do first thing every morning to set myself and my trading up for each day and each week.
RECAP
It is all about the Fed and the US dollar this morning after we saw strong surges from pretty much the entire currency universe on the back of what read like a very dovish FOMC statement this morning.
Euro is now in the 1.1735/50 resistance zone, the Aussie is holding above 80 cents, sterling is above 1.31, the Canadian dollar is down in the mid to low 1.24's, and USD/JPY is back near 111.
In dollar index terms, at 93.40, the US dollar is making a fresh low since last June.
The big question for forex traders is where will a catalyst for a handbrake on these rallies, or return of the buyers of US dollars, come from? I can see technical levels as big barriers in so many US dollar pairs. But I am yet to see actual buy signals that are executable.
So I wait.
HERE'S A DEEPER DIVE - IN A LITTLE MORE DETAIL AND WITH A FEW CHARTS
I have written a lot about the US dollar already this morning in my morning markets wrap and my AUD/USD specific piece. So I won't bore you by repeating everything again.
Suffice to say the key takeaway from the price action and dovish Fed is that any chance of a US dollar recovery has been postponed for now.
Clearly much bad news is priced into the US dollar now. But we need to see a material improvement in US data flow or a deterioration in the flow of data in other jurisdictions now that the Fed is out of play on the rate hike front for the next few months - possibly this year.
Hence the US dollar collapse this morning.
So let's look at the individual pairs - noting that there is a lot of rhetoric about the Fed, the outlook, and the US dollar side of the coin in my AUD/USD piece.
So I'll concentrate on price action and the charts.
EUR/USD has now moved back to the 38.2% retracement level of the 2014-2017 down move this morning with the move into the 1.1735/55 region.
Naturally that's a nice place for this move to pause, rest, pullback, and potentially end. But unless or until that 1.1615/20 region I've been watching and mentioning this week's give way the outlook remains positive.
Here's a look at the weekly chart of EUR/USD. You can see a break high could see euro run toward 1.20/1.21.
GBP/USD has had a cracker considering that at just 0.3% for the Second quarter UK growth is pretty poor. That makes it less likely the MPC will either hike rates or deliver a hawkish hold next week. And that would normally undermine the pound a little.
But not when the other side of the equation, the currency pair, has collapsed.
So GBP/USD is at 1.3112 this morning. If it can get up and through the recent highs at 1.3125/35 GBP/USD can run to a Fibo projection of 1.3330.
Am I wrong to feel uncomfortable about all this US dollar bearishness?
As I wrote above I haven't been executed on any buy US dollar sell other currency since I've been back. Regular readers will know I've been talking about levels which could generate signals, or signal a reversal. But as yet we haven't seen any executable trades.
So while I'm not participating in this move - I was away and the book was closed - I'm not suffering capital destruction either.
But I can't help but feel much is priced into the US dollar now.
The Canadian dollar is a case in point. It's down in the mid to low 1.24's this morning but it is now heading toward a long term support levels in the mid to low 1.23 region where both a weekly trend line and the 200 week moving average sit.
Equally when you look at the USD/CAD against the Canadian US 10-year bond spread I wonder if things are fully priced. Or rather I would say this spread needs to tightening further to aid the Canadian dollar's rally against the US.
Something to watch for USD/CAD. For the moment a test of support seems more likely than not. But the chances of it holding are high.
Have a great day's trading.