- Bitcoin must close above $99,800 to confirm an uptrend and break out of its short-term range.
- Failure to hold momentum could push Bitcoin toward key supports at $95,100 and $92,300.
- ETF outflows remain a concern, but bullish sentiment is supported by positive regulatory signals and Trump's crypto-friendly stance.
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Bitcoin has stabilized after early February’s volatility and is now moving within a narrow range.
The cryptocurrency has faced resistance at $97,700 this month and found support around $95,300. Buying activity in the second half of the week helped steady the price. It closed above $97,700 yesterday and moved into the $98,000 range.
This move signals the potential for an uptrend and pushed Bitcoin above short-term EMA levels. For the trend to strengthen, Bitcoin needs to close the week above $99,800.
If it gains momentum, it will break the Fibonacci 0.144 resistance and exit its short-term range, attracting more buyers, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency toward the next $104,000-$106,000 resistance zone.
The resistance zone marks the top of a consolidation phase that started in December. If Bitcoin breaks through, it may gain momentum toward $118,000-$122,000 and later $124,000, aligning with the midline of its trading channel.
The Stochastic RSI on the daily chart shows strong upward momentum, signaling a possible rise. However, Bitcoin must break the resistance just below $100,000 with high trading volume to confirm a bullish trend.
Conversely, if it loses momentum and stays below $99,800, market stress could increase. Selling pressure may push the price toward the 3-month EMA at $95,100, which acts as short-term support. If Bitcoin falls below this level, it could drop to $92,300.
A daily close below that may lead to $86,400 as the next support. If the decline continues, the price could target the $74,000-$80,000 range.
Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance Boosts Market Confidence
The recent rise in Bitcoin over the past two days came after US President Trump reaffirmed his positive stance on crypto markets.
Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative Institute conference in Miami, Trump said Bitcoin’s record prices reflect market confidence in him. His supportive remarks have renewed hopes that the US may establish a Bitcoin reserve. Reports of individual states working on Bitcoin reserves have also added to market optimism.
Other positive factors include growing confidence in US crypto regulations, which has helped limit downward price movements. Speaking this week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic predicted two interest rate cuts in 2025 due to a slowdown in the labor market. This statement was seen as a bullish signal for Bitcoin.
Despite recent positive developments, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows that have impacted the price. In the past three days, US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in withdrawals. Bitcoin’s rise toward $98,000 suggests bullish momentum, but sustained outflows could increase selling pressure.
Bitcoin's Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
- $99,800: A daily close above this level could strengthen the uptrend.
- $104,000-$106,000: Target zone if the upward movement continues.
- $112,000-$118,000: Potential acceleration points if Bitcoin breaks out of consolidation.
- $124,000: Key target for the medium-term uptrend.
Support Levels:
- $95,100: 3-month EMA support.
$92,300: Could be tested if Bitcoin closes below this level.
$86,400: First strong support zone if selling pressure increases.
$74,000-$80,000: Main support zone if the decline continues.
Consolidation (Horizontal Movement)
- If Bitcoin stays between $95,100 and $99,800, market direction will remain uncertain.
- Buyers and sellers may wait for a breakout with high volume.
- The Stochastic RSI signals bullish potential, but Bitcoin must break $100,000 with strong momentum.
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