Australian dollar pressured as Fed hikes return

au.investing.com/analysis/australian-dollar-pressured-as-fed-hikes-return-200537681

By David Llewellyn-Smith | Nov 30, 2022 10:41

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AUD/USD

-0.08%

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EEM

-0.47%

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RIO

+0.37%

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Copper

-0.88%

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LCO

-1.30%

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AU2YT...

-0.40%

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HYG

-0.30%

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DXY

+0.08%

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TIOc1

+0.17%

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DXY firmed a little last night:

AUD managed to bounce of false China hope too:

Oil is hanging on to support for dear life:

Base metals are stuck:

Big miners (ASX:RIO) are flying with iron ore:

EM stocks (NYSE:EEM) did better:

As junk (NYSE:HYG) surges on relentless China property announcements:

But US yields are firming again:

Which is squashing the bear market rally:

The Fed’s inflation nowcast model of CorePCE is unmoved as other measures float down to its level:

INFLATION

The Fed still has more work to do to unglue CorePCE.

Meanwhile, markets have been so busy with their reflexive reflation that they have set the Fed back by 225bps!

GUIDANCE

Nobody should ever accuse markets of being efficient. They are far from it. What they are is ruthless and will punish mistakes brutally. Even their own in due course.

I still see AUD lower as the recent reflation needs to reverse, and FCI hit new highs, to dislodge sticky CorePCE.

Jay Powell speaks tomorrow.

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

RBA

3.10%

Feb 07, 2023

BOE

3.50%

Feb 02, 2023

ECB

2.50%

Feb 02, 2023

FED

4.50%

Feb 01, 2023

SNB

1.00%

Mar 23, 2023

BOC

4.50%

Mar 08, 2023

RBNZ

4.25%

Feb 22, 2023

BOJ

-0.10%

Mar 10, 2023

CBR

7.50%

Feb 10, 2023

RBI

6.25%

Feb 08, 2023

PBOC

3.65%

BCB

13.75%

Feb 01, 2023

S&P/ASX 200	7,493.80	+25.50	+0.34%
ASX 200 Futures	7,449.5	+17.5	+0.24%
ASX All Ordinaries	7,709.50	+21.50	+0.28%
US 500	4,068.9	+8.5	+0.21%
Dow Jones	33,978.08	+28.67	+0.08%
China A50 Futures	14,333.0	-45.0	-0.31%
Dollar Index	101.735	+0.097	+0.10%

Crude Oil WTI	79.38	-1.63	-2.01%
Natural Gas	2.856	+0.008	+0.28%
Gold	1,928.00	-2.00	-0.10%
Silver	23.725	-0.295	-1.23%
Copper	4.2300	-0.0375	-0.88%
US Sugar #11	21.02	+0.34	+1.64%
US Coffee C	169.25	+2.10	+1.26%

Australia 10Y	3.562	-0.018	-0.50%
Australia 5Y	3.292	-0.013	-0.39%
New Zealand 10Y	4.157	+0.018	+0.42%
U.S. 10Y	3.507	+-0.011	+-0.31%
Japan 10Y	0.480	0.000	0.00%
China 10Y	2.973	-0.012	-0.40%
Singapore 10Y	2.876	+0.009	+0.33%

CSL	294.70	-1.42	-0.48%
Woolworths	35.150	+0.410	+1.18%
ANZ Holdings	24.980	+0.380	+1.54%
Commonwealth Bank Australia	109.850	+1.020	+0.94%
Telstra Group	4.090	+0.010	+0.25%
National Australia Bank	31.790	+0.310	+0.98%
BHP Group Ltd	49.540	+0.300	+0.61%

Australian dollar pressured as Fed hikes return

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