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Australian dollar pressured as Fed hikes return

Published 30/11/2022, 10:41 am
Updated 09/07/2023, 08:32 pm

DXY firmed a little last night:

 
DXY

AUD managed to bounce of false China hope too:

AUD

Oil is hanging on to support for dear life:

BRENT

Base metals are stuck:

COPPER

Big miners (ASX:RIO) are flying with iron ore:

RIO

EM stocks (NYSE:EEM) did better:

EEM

As junk (NYSE:HYG) surges on relentless China property announcements:

HYG

But US yields are firming again:

YIELDS

Which is squashing the bear market rally:

SPX

The Fed’s inflation nowcast model of CorePCE is unmoved as other measures float down to its level:

INFLATION

The Fed still has more work to do to unglue CorePCE.

Meanwhile, markets have been so busy with their reflexive reflation that they have set the Fed back by 225bps!

GUIDANCE

Nobody should ever accuse markets of being efficient. They are far from it. What they are is ruthless and will punish mistakes brutally. Even their own in due course.

I still see AUD lower as the recent reflation needs to reverse, and FCI hit new highs, to dislodge sticky CorePCE.

Jay Powell speaks tomorrow.

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