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Australian dollar poleaxed by global shock

Published 03/08/2023, 11:20 am
Updated 09/07/2023, 08:32 pm
EUR/USD
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AUD/USD
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XAU/USD
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EEM
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GC
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HG
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LCO
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ESZ24
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ADP
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RIO
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US10YT=X
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HYG
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DXY
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DXY to the moon and EUR to where it deserves:

DXY

AUD poleaxed and near breaking to one year lows:

AUDUSD

Oil and gold could not stand the heat:

BRENT

Dirt hosed but still pricing a recovery:

COPPER

Big miners (NYSE:RIO) crushed:

RIO

Without China, EM (NYSE:EEM) may return to being the “Third World” asset class:

EEM

Junk (NYSE:HYG) yuk:

HYG

US long yields took off:

YIELDS

Stocks finally cracked:

SPX

The proximate cause was the US Fitch downgrade, but the real problem for markets is that US growth is too strong relative to everywhere else.

ADP is still hot:

Private sector employment increased by 324,000 jobs in July and annual pay was up 6.2 percent year-over-year, according to the July ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

ADP

NBS is Friday. If it is at all similar, then the earth is going to shake.

Meanwhile, Europe is a developing disaster:

EURO GDP

And China is worse as the property adjustment shunts nominal growth lower permanently (chart is illustrative only):

CHINA GDP

The US economy was fortified by COVID-extended corporate liabilities. Bidenomics fiscally-charged growth. Mad stocks have inflated it further with robots super-long.

DXY can’t fall under these circumstances. It must rise. As it does, it will steamroll economies worldwide until enough deflation feeds back into the US for the FOMC to pivot.

A global recession is coming, and AUD is its whipping boy.

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