DXY is looking pretty firm:
Leaving AUD in the dirt:
North Asia is going only one way. CNY is slowly deteriorating:
Gold and oil were pressured:
Most metals too:
Miners meh:
EM is giving up as the Chinese rally rolls over:
Junk is still warning:
The curve was roughly stable:
As stocks gave some back:
As we roll towards H2, the headwinds for the AUD are once again intensifying:
- The US election race is about to begin, with the first debate scheduled only one month hence and tariffs a central theme.
- The Chinese property rescue is off to a poor start. This is by design, in my view.
- CNY and JPY are chronically weak.
- The likelihood continues to grow that the Federal Reserve will lag not lead any easing this year or next.
- Asset markets are still driven primarily by AI themes not very friendly to Australia.
- A global soft landing remains the base case. Fully priced bulk commodities are likely to underperform.
- Bearish positioning in the AUD has pulled back.
There are plenty of reasons here to expect a weak H2 for the Australian dollar.