DXY is looking pretty firm:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/2fa76779c7f8c755ff598fe09b61f3fd.png)
Leaving AUD in the dirt:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/db6e8e3dd73917edd264af992266865b.png)
North Asia is going only one way. CNY is slowly deteriorating:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/48980f68b7c066dc9db0d458b56ea761.png)
Gold and oil were pressured:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/7d2b2e816f5d488ad524aa9f7ef6015d.png)
Most metals too:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/5c5751c6105d540081d70f8eef601a3a.png)
Miners meh:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/3297770d515f54c9a49c025f5da8f05c.png)
EM is giving up as the Chinese rally rolls over:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/d6fc81fd8e63eb2a8765e15deb369e43.png)
Junk is still warning:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/13bef921ed3ac3b22063c533a32087af.png)
The curve was roughly stable:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/878f76514706c553b16222a92b43ebbe.png)
As stocks gave some back:
![](https://d70-invdn-com.investing.com/content/6f4c8b219f08383b3a6ea02f1458fac9.png)
As we roll towards H2, the headwinds for the AUD are once again intensifying:
- The US election race is about to begin, with the first debate scheduled only one month hence and tariffs a central theme.
- The Chinese property rescue is off to a poor start. This is by design, in my view.
- CNY and JPY are chronically weak.
- The likelihood continues to grow that the Federal Reserve will lag not lead any easing this year or next.
- Asset markets are still driven primarily by AI themes not very friendly to Australia.
- A global soft landing remains the base case. Fully priced bulk commodities are likely to underperform.
- Bearish positioning in the AUD has pulled back.
There are plenty of reasons here to expect a weak H2 for the Australian dollar.