DXY reversed upwards:
AUD did the Costanza:
North Asia too:
Oil and copper broke out sending an unambiguous no-landing signal:
Miners are fooked as iron ore heads for the cost curve:
EM fell:
Junk did OK:
Given the yield back-up:
Stocks held on:
US PPI was a shocker at 0.6 versus 0.3 expected, largely on oil. This is a direct input into PCE, so it will not please El Fedo.
Worse, the IEA swung oil hawkish:
Global oil markets face a supply deficit throughout 2024, instead of the surplus previously expected, assuming that OPEC+ continues output cuts in the second half of the year, according to the International Energy Agency.
This certainly can delay the Fed, which will challenge the risk rally for a time.
Though the asymmetry of cuts to more hikes is still very favourable to risk so I wouldn’t get too cautious.
If oil runs, AUD will run away.