US jobs were mixed. Headline jobs were soft, the unemployment rate tanked:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month.
…The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 38,000, from +1,053,000 to +1,091,000, and the change for August was revised up by 131,000, from +235,000 to +366,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 169,000 higher than previously reported.
It was better than it looked. Goldman:
Nonfarm payrolls rose 194k in September, missing consensus for the second consecutive month. Disappointing job gains in leisure and hospitality and the decline in labor force participation suggest a drag from the Delta variant, and the return of in-person schooling failed to boost education jobs and accounted for 330k of the miss relative to our forecast. Other details were encouraging however, with169k of upward revisions, declines in the unemployment and underemployment rates, strong wage gains, and increases in work week and overtime hours. We don’t believe the combination of a Delta-related jobs miss and stronger-than-expected unemployment and wage data will impact the Fed’s tapering announcement, which we continue to expect at the November meeting. Our composition-corrected wage tracker stands at +3.7% in Q3 (vs. +3.4% in Q2).
Fed to taper directly into the US fiscal cliff, Chinese property bust, European stall and global energy shock. Duck for cover!
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