Nonfarm payrolls beat, USD benefits
Nonfarm payrolls came in slightly ahead of expectations last week with 215,000 jobs compared with the 205,000 consensus. On the surface, the jobs report appears particularly rosy and even the bad news in Friday’s jobs report has been read optimistically; the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% from 4.9%, however this was accompanied by a rising participation rate (a measure of how many of the eligible labour pool are actively seeking employment), showing the growth in the pool of labour was responsible, rather than broad-based job losses. Friday’s release also marked the longest month-over-month winning streak in job gains on record.
The US dollar benefited sharply, rising against both sterling and the euro and we remain at around those levels this morning, with GBP/USD hovering at 1.42 and EUR/USD just shy of 1.14.
Fed minutes could show disharmony on US rates
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this week is all about the Federal Reserve and their outlook on rates. Wednesday sees the release of the minutes from the Fed’s March rate-setting meeting, where markets will be looking to see if Janet Yellen’s dovish outlook on rates is repeated throughout the FOMC. Many suspect that despite the chief’s stance on low rates in the near-term, a number of regional Fed Presidents will have called for tighter policy in their March discussions.
Aussie dollar slips on retail sales, but markets eye rate decision tomorrow
The Australian dollar lagged overnight as retail sales failed to grow in February, despite economists forecasting a gain of 0.4%. Nonetheless, the AUD looks to sit on the sidelines ahead of this Tuesday’s interest rate decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia are expected to keep rates unchanged at 2% for the tenth consecutive month despite the woeful state of their trade balance, which last showed a deficit of A$ 2.9billion, despite Australia’s reliance on their raw materials-based export sector.
UK growth holds on, confidence doesn’t
The UK still ranks first in the G7 for growth, but this confidence certainly hasn’t extended to the business sector, currency markets or consumers' wallets. UK manufacturing (or lack thereof) has taken the limelight over the past seven days as the steelworks in Port Talbot, Wales (one of a handful left in the UK) remains in turmoil. The government has failed to reassure both the workers and the general public over their competency to manage such a situation and this Friday’s industrial and manufacturing production figures are expected to add fuel to that fire. Manufacturing is expected to have contracted by 0.7% Y/Y in February, leading one to wonder if the 2.1% annual growth rate can be sustained into 2016.