A Relief Rally For The US Dollar, Or Is This Something More?

Originally published by AxiTrader

Welcome to the Forex Today column.

In it, I'll be trying to add a bit more colour and a lot more charts than I do in my broader overnight Market Wrap I do first thing every morning to set myself and my trading up for each day and each week.

RECAP

Could the move by Chinese authorities to free up trading in the yuan now that the PBoC believes it has its capital account in order be the straw that broke the camel's back of US dollar weakness?

It's certainly a question I'm wondering this morning after the US dollar continued its very nascent recovery Monday.

At 6.5254 USD/CNY was up 0.74%, the US Dollar Index is up 0.52% at 91.875, and the euro is back at 1.1960 right on support. Don't get me wrong the surge in USD/JPY and USD/CHF - both of which jumped more than 1% to start the week - suggest this is a bit of a relief rally after the North Koreans and Hurricane Irma didn't deliver on traders fears.

But I do wonder if the Chinese action is not a very direct, none-to-subtle, signal that the US dollar has gone too far. One that traders in other pairs can't miss?

We'll see in time I guess.

HERE'S A DEEPER DIVE - IN A LITTLE MORE DETAIL AND WITH A FEW CHARTS

So you've read my first hypothesis about exchange rate policy and currency markets directly. But I have another secondary hypothesis as well which might lead to more support for the US dollar as well.

As I wrote in my Overnight Markets Wrap, " I’m wondering if the new paradigm in Washington that might be emerging between President Trump, the Democrats, and moderate Republicans hasn’t rekindled hopes that the Trump agenda for the economy isn’t dead – Trumponomics might be back!"

I'm out on my own on this one. But if the compact with the Democrats and moderate Republicans means more spending and eventually tax cuts then a lift in growth and Fed rate rises will come back to the front of traders minds.

That would be a boon for the US dollar.

Anyway, that's for another day, or week as might be the case.

To the price action.

We’ll see. But as I write this morning USD/JPY is up 1.4% at 109.36 and back strongly within the 2017 range and on track for a move toward 110.50/111.

Chart

USD/CHF is up 1.28% to 0.9564.

That US dollar recovery has knocked the euro back to interim support here around 1.1950. That’s despite Couere’s more even handed comments than the headlines suggest about the real impact of euro strength on the EU economy. That in itself tells me that traders themselves thing the euro needs a pullback. Long positions are still huge. So a break of 1.1945 will open the way for a run into the 1.1820/30 region where there is Fibonacci and channel support.

Chart

Elsewhere the pound is off a little at 1.3167 and looking weak technically in the short term if last night's low gives way. GBP/USD did relatively better than many other majors, save for the Canadian dollar, as traders await the release of the retail sales and inflation data tonight and then the BoE later this week.

1.3080/1.31 is important support.

Chart

Of the commodity bloc the Canadian dollar has done best and has actually made gains against the US dollar. USD/CAD is down 0.35% at 1.2106 as traders grapple with what the BoC might do on interest rates given Canadian economic strength.

My sense is that if last week's low gives way - IF - USD/CAD could gallop toward 1.1850.

Chart

I've done my usual AUD/USD piece. The synopsis is it's under a little pressure from the stronger dollar but supported by metals, risk appetite, and global growth.

The kiwi is down 0.2% sitting at 0.7240. It's messy and I'm steering clear of the kiwi right now until the picture clarifies a bit.

Have a great day's trading.