Originally published by AxiTrader
Key Takeaway
The Australian dollar is above 77 cents this morning.
That means the Aussie is breaking out against the US dollar and on the crosses as the confluence of positives combine to push the price higher.
That said, there is still plenty of wood to chop for the Aussie. Indeed there is some form of resistance almost every 20 or 30 points on the way to the both the November high of 0.7771 and the April 2016 high of 0.7835. But while the US dollar remains the world's most crowded trade and the Aussie dollar comes into the spotlight the bulls have it.
What You Need To Know
This current environment in global markets has always historically been associated with strong bids and a rally for the Australian dollar. So, notwithstanding the natural reticence of the buyers to take the AUDUSD into the graveyard that levels above 77 cents have become the reality is the Aussie should be here. If not higher still.
Clearly it is the confluence of positives that are supporting the Aussie dollar against the US dollar and on the crosses. Those positives include:
Those positives include:
- Strong commodity prices;
- Reduced chances of an RBA rate cut;
- An improvement in risk appetite as stocks rally;
- A quiet US dollar;
- Recalcitrant buyers entering the market; and
- The continuation of global data printing stronger than expected.
Last night’s US data was just the latest in a continuation of this trend. So even though that could, or should have, helped the US dollar what it does is provide a really positive backdrop for currencies leveraged to global growth.
And as Alan Greenspan once quipped - when I want to know how global growth is looking I look at the level of the Australian dollar
So here we are this morning with the Aussie dollar sitting above 77 cents and just below 0.7720 resistance. Clearly the bulls are getting a little less tentative up here at a level that has been a graveyard for them for a year now.
Today’s jobs data is the key. The market is expecting 10,000 jobs and a stronger number should see the Aussie on its way toward 0.7770 - the November high - while a weak number will knock the Aussie lower once more.
Looking at the charts for the AUD/USD the weeklies suggest it is on the way to 0.7780/0.7800. The latter is the good old garden variety 38.2% retracement from the 2104-2016 selloff in the AUD/USD.
That looks like it would be a tough level to break right now. But given that the market is only mildly long of Aussie there is plenty of position limits available for buyers to buy more Aussie.
On the crosses the Aussie is trying to break out as well with EUR/AUD and AUD/CAD right on the edge of their ranges. But as I highlighted yesterday it has lost ground against the South African rand and Brazilian real.
That tells me this rally in the Aussie, and the fact the Kiwi is up 0.8% to 0.7222, is about a recalibration by global investors of the economic and markets outlook. And that means the Aussie can keep moving higher.
Have a great day's trading.