- Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill are down almost 22% in 2022
- Slowdown in consumer spending, high inflation are headwinds for most restaurant stocks
- Long-term investors could consider buying CMG stock at current levels.
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Shareholders of the popular Tex-Mex chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) have seen the value of their investment lose 21.9% so far this year. By comparison, the S&P 500 Restaurants Sub Industry Index is down 16.1% in the same time period. Meanwhile, Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) and Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), two other leading names in the restaurant industry, have lost 12.8% and 19.1%, respectively.
Source: Investing.com
On Sept. 23, 2021, CMG shares went over $1,958 hitting a record high. However, this year, they plunged below $1,200 on June 14. The stock’s 52-week range has been $1196.28 - $1958.55, and the market capitalization currently stands at $38.3 billion.
The Mexican food chain has around 3,000 restaurants, while it enjoys a market share of roughly 10% among restaurants. In the U.S., the size of the chain restaurant market is well over $50 billion. Meanwhile, in the coming years, North America will account for about 44% of the growth in the fast-casual restaurant space. Therefore, Wall Street pays close attention to quarterly results from Chipotle.
Recent Metrics
Chipotle Mexican Grill company released Q1 figures on April 26. Revenue grew 16% year-over-year, reaching $2 billion. Comparable restaurant sales increased 9%.
Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $5.70, representing a 6.3% increase from $5.36 in the same period the year before. Cash and equivalents ended the quarter at $646.7 million.
Wall Street noted digital channels bring in roughly 40% of revenues. However, the summer season is likely to give a significant boost to in-restaurant sales as well. By the end of the decade, management expect to reach 7,000 venues in North America alone.
On the results, CEO Brian Niccol said:
“Chipotle's performance in the first quarter was strong, despite challenges from the Omicron variant and on-going inflation.”
The restaurant group is set to release Q2 metrics on July 26. For the second quarter, management expects a 10%-12% growth in comparable restaurant sales
Prior to the release of the Q1 results, CMG stock was around $1,510. But at the time of writing it trades at $1,371.40.
What To Expect From CMG Stock
Among 32 analysts polled via Investing.com, CMG stock has a "outperform" rating.
Source: Investing.com
Wall Street also has a 12-month median price target of $1,771.89 for the stock. Such a move would suggest an increase of 29% from the current price. The 12-month price range stands between $1,335 and $2,500.
However, according to a number of valuation models, like those that might consider P/E or P/S multiples or terminal values, the average fair value for CMG stock on InvestingPro stands at $1,412.54.
Source: InvestingPro
In other words, fundamental valuation suggests shares could increase only by 3%.
We can also look at CMG’s financial health as determined by ranking more than 100 factors against peers in the consumer discretionary sector.
For instance, in terms of growth and profit, it scores 4 out of 5. Its overall score of 4 points is a great performance ranking.
At present, CMG’s P/B and P/S ratios are 18.0x and 4.9x, respectively. Comparable metrics for peers stand at 2.0x and 1.4x, respectively. These numbers show that despite the recent decline in price, the fundamental valuation for CMG stock is still on the rich side.
Our expectation is for CMG stock to trade in a wide range between $1,300 and $1,400 in the coming weeks. Afterwards, shares could potentially start a new leg up.
Adding CMG Stock To Portfolios
Chipotle bulls who are not concerned about short-term volatility could consider investing now. Their target price would be $1,412.54, as per the target provided by valuation models.
Alternatively, investors could consider buying an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that has CMG stock as a holding. Examples include:
Finally, investors who expect CMG stock to bounce back in the weeks ahead could consider setting up a bull call spread.
Most option strategies are not suitable for all retail investors. Therefore, the following discussion on CMG stock is offered for educational purposes and not as an actual strategy to be followed by the average retail investor.
Bull Call Spread On Chipotle Stock
Intraday Price At Time Of Writing: $1,371.40
In a bull call spread, a trader has a long call with a lower strike price and a short call with a higher strike price. Both legs of the trade have the same underlying stock (i.e. Chipotle) and the same expiration date.
The trader wants CMG stock to increase in price. In a bull call spread, both the potential profit and the potential loss levels are limited. The trade is established for a net cost (or net debit), which represents the maximum loss.
Today’s bull call spread trade involves buying the Sept. 16 expiry 1,380 strike call for $87.10 and selling the 1,390 strike call for $82.
Buying this call spread costs the investor around $5.10, or $510 per contract, which is also the maximum risk for this trade.
We should note that the trader could easily lose this amount if the position is held to expiry and both legs expire worthless, i.e., if the CMG stock price at expiration is below the strike price of the long call (or $1,380 in our example).
To calculate the maximum potential gain, we can subtract the premium paid from the spread between the two strikes, and multiply the result by 100. In other words: ($10.00 – $5.10) x 100 = $490.
The trader will realize this maximum profit if the Chipotle stock price is at or above the strike price of the short call (higher strike) at expiration (or $1,390 in our example).
Bottom Line
In recent days, CMG stock has come under significant pressure. Yet, the decline has improved the margin of safety for buy-and-hold investors who could consider investing soon. Alternatively, experienced traders could also set up an options trade to benefit from a potential run-up in the price of CMG stock.
Disclaimer: On the date of publication, Tezcan Gecgil, Ph.D., did not have any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.